Commodity Calls

Go long on MCX lead metal futures above ₹167

Akhil Nallamuthu BL Research Bureau | Updated on April 15, 2021


The futures contract of lead on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has rallied continuously since June last year from about ₹130, which has acted as a strong support. Though the contract faced intermittent corrections in price, it recouped its strength and continued to travel upwards. But after registering a fresh one-year high of ₹181.3 in the final week of February, the contract reversed the trend. It dropped steeply and hit a low of ₹157.25, thereby losing a little over 13 per cent in two weeks.

However, the decline has been arrested and after ruling sideways for a few sessions, the bulls have started to gain an upper hand to gradually push the contract northwards. Therefore, the price action over the past month shows that the contract has been gradually building momentum. Supporting the positive bias, the price has moved above both 21- and 50-day moving averages (DMAs) and the former has crossed over the latter, giving the contract a positive medium-term outlook.

Moreover, the daily relative strength index that slipped below the mid-point level of 50 i.e., into the bearish zone is now back above that level and the moving average convergence divergence indicator on the daily chart, which entered bullish terrain last week, continues to chart a positive trajectory. But notably, ₹167 is a hurdle. Hence, traders can buy MCX lead April futures with stop-loss at ₹165 if it breaks out of ₹167. The contract is likely to touch ₹170 and ₹173 in the short run.


Published on April 16, 2021

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