How blows the wind?

You can’t control what you don’t know — and that has precisely been the problem that electricity grid operators had with wind power. Unlike (say) coal, wind does not send in a steady stream of electricity into the wires; its generation depends upon when and how fast the wind blows. As the consumer at the other end demands a steady supply, the grid operator has a problem. This is one of the two main reasons why many states are not so keen on adding wind power capacity (the other being the higher cost).

Positive signs But now positive signs are emerging. Last week, two organisations in Tamil Nadu, working jointly, announced that they were ready to reveal each day how much power the 7,290 MW of wind power would generate every 15 minutes of the following day, and the following week. The Indian Wind Power Association and the National Institute of Wind Energy had been working on this for a year with the help of Vortex of Spain. Now they are ready to give the day-ahead forecasts to the grid operator — the State Load Dispatch Centre (which will then do the ‘scheduling’, or matching supply with demand). Dr K Kasturirangaian, Chairman of IWPA, says that forecast accuracy has been found to be over 90 per cent.

Many states — TN in particular — have often refused to buy wind power citing its fickleness. Now the industry feels there is no reason for a ‘wind back down’ in Tamil Nadu, and that whatever the windmills produce during the windy months (April-September) will be fully absorbed.

Anticipating that it would soon be legally required to supply generation forecasts, the wind industry is taking steps. Forecasting and scheduling is already in place in Gujarat, which has about 3,700 MW. The Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association is working towards building the forecasting infrastructure in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. All this is in order to be in readiness when the law requires the industry to supply forecasts. Electricity regulators in Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka have put up draft legislation (for wind and solar) for public comments; other states are expected to follow suit.

A fillip to wind The advent of ‘scheduling and forecasting’ is expected to give a fillip to wind installations in the country. Experts, such as D V Giri, Secretary-General, IWTMA and Vishal Pandya, Co-Founder & Director, REConnect Energy Pvt Ltd, a renewable energy consultancy, believe that forecasting will pave the way for interstate sale of wind power, deepening the market. Today, a State like Tamil Nadu, when it has surplus wind power, hesitates to commit power to a buyer in, say, Haryana, because any waywardness in supply will attract penalties. However, if it knows the next day’s (or week’s) generation, it can sell.

Wind industry insiders say that the industry has done (is doing) its job and it is up to the State governments to do the rest. It is still incumbent upon the state-owned load dispatch centres to do the ‘scheduling’ — forecasting only enables them to do so better. Scheduling is the art of balancing supply and demand, and it helps to have spare capacity that can quickly come on stream if supply is short — as is the practice in wind-rich countries of Europe.

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