The currently active phase of the monsoon is expected to continue for at least another week, according to model predictions.

A fresh low-pressure area would be generated over the northwest Bay of Bengal, promising another round of rains for east-central India.

RAIN PATH

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts see the rains propagating over Central India and adjoining north peninsular India.

But the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction does not seem to agree and indicate northward progression of rains.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has sided with this view, promising rains for Indo-Gangetic plains. They would get heavy to very heavy towards the Himalayan foothills.

The good run of monsoon during this month has ensured normal to excess rainfall for east-central and adjoining peninsular India up till now during the season. Entire Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Vidarbha in Maharashtra and east Uttar Pradesh have benefited in this manner.

NORMAL RAIN

The week ending Wednesday saw only two per cent deficit in rainfall, with the hitherto dry north-west India making most of the gains.

West Rajasthan saw excess rainfall of +248 per cent during this period; east Rajasthan, +170 per cent; and west Madhya Pradesh +97 per cent. Kerala (+30 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (+43 per cent) were the other beneficiaries.

Overall deficit for the country stayed put at 15 per cent as on date. Individual deficits were (in percentage figures in brackets): northwest India (25); east and northeast India (13); Central India (10) and south peninsula (18).

HEAVY WEATHER

In view of the next wave of rains originating from the Bay of Bengal, the IMD has predicted heavy rainfall for Chhattisgarh, Kerala and Lakshadweep during next two days.

Thundershowers have been forecast for east India, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh.

West Rajasthan would continue to receive thundershowers on Friday. Rains are forecast to pick up over west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on August 16, 2012)
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