A hyperactive low-pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh continues to deliver incessant rains for north, central and adjoining east India.

The monsoon flows are being kept steady also by a massive typhoon (cyclone) ‘Tembin’ raging in the East China Sea.

PACIFIC TYPHOON

It is expected to ram the southeast coast of China over the next few days.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the monsoon was vigorous over Vidarbha and Arunachal Pradesh overnight.

Himachal Pradesh and east Madhya Pradesh were two other places where the monsoon was active.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall has been warned of in Jammu division, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next three days.

Heavy rainfall has also been forecast over Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

An extended forecast valid for the next seven days said rainfall would occur at many places over northwest, east and northeast India and the west coast.

A few places over Chhattisgarh and the east coast also are likely to receive scattered showers during this period.

Extreme northwest India (west Rajasthan) and interior peninsula may witness a few spells of scattered showers.

Meanwhile, the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University has persisted with the outlook for rain for Kerala, Tamil Nadu and parts of south interior Karnataka.

On a level of one to five, it assessed as ‘moderate’ the chances of the predicted conditions materialising.

TYPHOON SEASON

This is based on the continued watch for typhoon activity in the South China Sea/Northwest Pacific, which can help sustain the monsoon flows.

In fact, Adam Lea of the London-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) group said that the agency anticipated this year’s ‘typhoon season’ to be about 10 per cent above the norm.

A TSR August forecast update called for a 46 per cent probability of an above-normal typhoon season; a 40 per cent probability of a near-normal season; and only a 14 per cent chance of a below-normal season. (vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in)

(E.o.m.)

(This article was published on August 20, 2012)
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