Your Stock Portfolio: CRISIL in a medium-term downtrend

Here are answers to readers’ queries on the performance of their stock holdings.

What is the medium and short-term outlook for Crisil?

Singaiah Bodduluri

Crisil (₹1,889.7): After registering a new high at ₹2,490 levels in early October 2016, the stock of CRISIL changed direction and started to decline. Since then, it has been on a medium-term downtrend. While trending down, the stock breached a key support at ₹2,150 and its 200-day moving average in late January. Short-term trend is also down for the stock. It trades well below its 50 and 200-day moving averages.

On Friday, the stock tumbled 4 per cent accompanied by extra-ordinary volume, decisively breaking below the significant support range between 1,950 and 1,970. With this fall, the stock appears to have strengthened its medium as well as short-term downtrends. Both the daily and weekly relative strength indices feature in the bearish zone backing the downtrend.

The stock can extend its downtrend and reach the next support level at ₹1,800 in the short to medium term. The significant long-term support in the band between ₹1,780 and ₹1,800 could provide base for the stock. Subsequent upward reversal from this base zone can take the stock higher to ₹2,150 or ₹2,200 in the medium term. Further rally beyond these levels can take the stock up to ₹2,250 and ₹2,300. But a conclusive plunge below ₹1,780 will reinforce the downtrend and drag the stock down to ₹1,700 and then to ₹1,500 in the long term. Investors with a medium as well as long-term perspective can hold the stock with a stop-loss at ₹1,770 levels. Avoid taking fresh long positions on a strong plunge below the ₹1,780 and ₹1,800 support range.

I have shares of Jayant Agro at ₹545. Should I sell or hold?

R.C.Bhatia

Jayant Agro Organics (₹641.5): The stock of Jayant Agro Organics break-out of a significant long-term resistance level of ₹150 in May 2016. Thereafter, the stock has never tested this level again. Since then, it has been on a long-term uptrend. In early February, it started testing a key resistance at around ₹620. Last week, the stock conclusively breached this resistance by gaining 5.4 per cent with good volume.

However, the indicators and oscillators in the daily as well as weekly chart are displaying weakness, implying trend reversal is on the cards. Therefore, you can consider taking partial profits off the table now and holding the stock with a stop-loss at ₹575, which is the immediate support level. Strong slump below this level can pull the stock down to ₹550 and then to ₹520 levels. Subsequent supports are placed at ₹500 and ₹470 levels. On the upside, the immediate resistances are at ₹650 and ₹670 levels. Strong rally beyond ₹670 will take the stock to new highs. Immediate supports are placed at ₹620 and ₹600.

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