The average number of Covid-19 vaccine doses administered has surged since June 21 across the country. The jump appears to be largely due to the new vaccine policy implemented from June 21 wherein the Central government provides free vaccines to all Indians above 18 years. The Centre is now buying 75 per cent of the total domestic production of the vaccine and distributing it to the States for free.

The number of jabs per day has jumped 118 per cent since June 21. While the national average for the period between June 1 and 20 was 32 lakh doses per day, it increased to an average of 70 lakh doses per day in the period from June 21 to 24.

Trend in top 10 States

This analysis is based on vaccination trend in the top 10 States that have administered the highest number of doses so far. Madhya Pradesh was at the forefront over the past week and recorded a 380 per cent surge in the average jabs since June 21, compared to the vaccination in the period between June 1 to June 20. Similarly, States such as Karnataka, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh also saw the average number of doses administered climb by 149 per cent, 131 per cent and 129 per cent, respectively.

In fact, this trend can be observed among almost all the States in the top 10, except for Andhra Pradesh. Per data from Covid-19 India, there is a 49 per cent dip in the average number of doses administered in Andhra Pradesh in the June 21-24 period compared to June 1-20.

The number of doses administered every day in the top 10 States is also erratic. Data showed that between May 4 and June 20, these top 10 States administered a higher number of doses during the weekdays, that is, from Monday to Saturday, when compared to Sundays.

For instance, Uttar Pradesh administered 96 per cent more doses during the weekdays vis-à-vis on a Sunday. Similarly, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra also administered 66 per cent more doses Mondays through Saturdays when compared to Sundays.

The number of daily jabs touched an all-time with 87 lakh doses on June 21. But the pace has dipped since — the number of doses administered fell to 58 lakh on the 22nd, 69 lakh on 23rd and 63 lakh doses yesterday. However, the daily doses administered the last four days still average to a much higher level than the numbers that were reported before June 21.

Supply constrained

However, according to Nomura, this pace of over 87 lakh daily vaccine doses is “unlikely to be sustained in the next month, as supply remains constrained.”

It also added that according to its estimates, by August, a likely monthly supply of approximately 2,500 lakh doses should be able to support a pace of over 80 lakh doses daily.

“The government has recently ordered 740 million additional doses for August-December (Covishield: 250 million, Covaxin: 190 million, Biological E: 300 million). Overall, we continue to expect enough supply to fully inoculate ~50 per cent of the total population (around 70 per cent of the adult population) by end-2021,” the report said.