The monsoon is expected to emerge out of the recess soon with the Bay of Bengal preparing to host a helpful cyclonic circulation by Monday, an India Met Department (IMD) update said.

This circulation would act as a pulley in the Bay to drag in the monsoon current across the South Arabian Sea and around the South Indian Peninsula over the next two to three days.

‘low’ in making? IMD projections favour a situation where this circulation descends to lower levels of the atmosphere, gains strength and becomes a likely monsoon low-pressure area/depression that travels towards the East Coast of India.

It may eye the Andhra Pradesh coast initially, but move north-east subsequently gaining strength in the process and hit the Odisha coast.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts too saw the flows strengthening in the Bay during the week but did not expect a monsoon depression to form. The US Climate Prediction Centre hinted that the East Coast of India will witness more rain during May 20 to 26 and even more so during the week that follows, leaving an area of concentrated heavy rain over Odisha and Bengal.

Not unusual This indicates that the monsoon anchored by the Bay of Bengal would settle to the usual pattern and get directed towards the coasts, a process during the seasonal rains may hit the Kerala and Coastal Karnataka.

The US agency said that Kerala, Karnataka and the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha would receive moderate to heavy rain during May 20 to 26.

During May 27 to June 2, the rains would have covered South Interior Karnataka, Goa, Konkan, parts of Maharashtra, Rayalaseema and Telangana.

The progress of the monsoon had become stuck during the past weekend (around May 18-19) after it covered the North Andaman Sea and parts of the adjoining Bay, not an unusual event by itself.

Anti-cyclone An untimely anti-cyclone (high pressure region that repels monsoon flows) is still dominant over the Arabian Sea, and it would take at least the next week before it breaks down and gives way for the monsoon.

Meanwhile, the duty forecaster at the Maldives Meteorological Service informed BusinessLine that the monsoon made its onset over the central and southern parts of the republic on May 16. It was delayed by a day or two in the northern parts. The onset usually over the Maldives atolls, which lie to the south-west of Sri Lanka, occurs in mid-May. On Sunday, the Sri Lankan Met had forecast high winds and heavy showers to the south-eastern parts of the island.

The monsoon usually enters Sri Lanka by May 25, the last outpost before it races across the Laccadives Sea to drive into Kerala on mainland India around June 1. The onset date announced this year by the IMD is May 30, plus or minus four days.