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Thiruvananthapuram, March 20
An existing low-pressure area over the South-East Bay of Bengal has intensified twice over into a depression over the past day or two, setting up the second storm of the pre-monsoon season and the first cyclone-in-the-making over the Bay of Bengal .
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The system is expected to move towards the Bangladesh-Myanmar coastAn India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put out a pre-cyclone watch (‘yellow message’) as the depression lay centered this (Sunday) morning 80 km North-North-West of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands); 210 km South-South-West of Port Blair (Andaman Islands); and 870 km South-South-West of Yangon (Myanmar).
Cyclone by Monday night
The forecast scenario by Monday night when the depression-turned-cyclone will likely lunge towards Coco Island and Yangon, at the southern tip of Myanmar. | Photo Credit: (nil)
The depression is likely to move nearly northwards along and off the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, sparing it a direct hit, and intensify into a deep depression by tomorrow (Monday) and into a cyclonic storm into the same night.
The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, the nearest tracking station on land, said the depression said the system may approach the Coco Island, Myanmar, on Monday mornning, and Hainggyikyun, Ayeyarwady Region, in the evening before barrelling over the Rakhine coast on Tuesday.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre located the system approximately 760 km to South-South-West of Yangon, Myanmar, at 8.30 am this morning. The system features improved low-level banding and fragmented convective bands to the North-East extending to the South in vicinity of the Nicobar Islands.
Impact only for Bay Islands
A reasonably good ‘window effect’ on top, low vertical wind shear, and high sea-surface temperatures (29-30 deg Celsius) provide the system with a favorable environment. It may track to the North, steadily intensifying in the process, with a possible landfall along the western portion of the Myanmar coast.
The IMD indicated that the Andaman & Nicobar Islands could likely be the lone inhabited area under India’s jurisdiction to be impacted by the building cyclone. Fishermen are advised not to venture into South-East Bay on Sunday and Monday; the Andaman Sea and along and off the Andaman & Nicobar Islands until Tuesday; the East-Central Bay on Monday and Tuesday; and into the North-East Bay on Tuesday.
High seas, fishermen warning
Light to moderate rainfall/thundershowers are likely at most places over the Andaman Islands with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall and isolated heavy rainfall over the Nicobar Islands. As for Monday, light to moderate rainfall/thundershowers are likely at most places over the Andaman Islands with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall. Light to moderate rainfall at a few places is likely over Nicobar Islands.
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