A monsoon depression has formed over South-East and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal on Friday morning and lay centred over the same region by noon near about 730 km East-South-West of Puducherry; 740 km East-South-East of Chennai; 860 km South-East of Nellore; 930 km South-East of Bapatla; and 910 km South-East of Machilipatnam. It is likely to intensify into a deep depression by Saturday and further into a cyclone over the South-West Bay by Sunday. 

Skipping TN coast

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the cyclone would change its bearing to face the North-West and reach near the South Andhra Pradesh and adjoining North Tamil Nadu coasts to the North of Chennai by Monday. It would change track once again over the waters to move nearly northwards almost parallel to South Andhra Pradesh coast and cross the South Andhra Pradesh during forenoon of Tuesday between Nellore and Machilipatnam as a stronger cyclone than initially thought with wind speeds of 80-90 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr. 

Rain to scale up from Sunday

The IMD said North Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry would continue to receive light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall on Saturday. Rain intensity would increase from Sunday with rain at most places and heavy to very heavy rain at few places and isolated extremely heavy rain. Rainfall is likely at most places over the region on Monday also with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places before reducing in intensity as the cyclone moves away to the North.

Extremely heavy over AP coast

Light to moderate rainfall is forecast at most places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Sunday and Monday with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rain at isolated places. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and heavy to very heavy at a few places and extremely heavy rain at isolated places likely over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Tuesday. As for Rayalaseema, it would be light to moderate at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainon Sunday and Monday. 

Rains for Odisha as well

The weakening cyclone will also bring some rain farther to the East-North-East over Odisha with light to moderate rain at most places over the state and isolated heavy rain over South Coastal and adjoining South Interior rOdisha on Monday and isolated heavy to very heavy rain on Tuesday. Things would settle down over the South Peninsula after the cyclone crosses land over though rain-driving easterly waves would slosh around the coast once in a while. Kerala is the lone meteorological subdivision to receive excess rainfall (20 per cent above normal) so far during this season while Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal (-6 per cent) and by some stretch Coastal Karnataka (-14 per cent) fall in the ‘normal’ category.