The North-East Bay of Bengal may throw up a low pressure of its own in the next few days, even in the face of raging typhoon Mawar in the West Pacific.

An outlook by the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology said the ‘low’ may crawl up along the Myanmar coast for the most part, but could drag the monsoon current to strength over the larger Bay of Bengal. 

This is the best news breaking on the weather front on Wednesday even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) extended the prospects of the monsoon making further progress in the Bay by two more days.

Seasonal rains may be declared over Myanmar during this period, late by a week to 10 days. The onset will materialise also over Sri Lanka, late almost in a week. 

Weak to moderate rain

US agencies suggest Sri Lanka may witness a weak to moderate onset, even as they suspect the monsoon may enter Kerala along South-West India around June 6 or later.

Until then, the South Indian Peninsula, Sri Lanka, and Bay of Bengal will likely slip under a below-normal rainfall regime despite the helpful ‘pull’ exerted by the ‘low’ off the Myanmar coast.

The Myanmar Met agency has already forecast that the monsoon will be ‘weak to moderate’ during this period.

El Niño still emerging 

Meanwhile, the Pacific continues to be in a ‘neutral’ state (neither La Niña nor El Niño).

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures may reach El Niño thresholds sooner than later, though the response from the atmosphere (El Niño is a ‘coupled’ ocean-atmosphere phenomenon) has not been encouraging so far.

Coupling allows the warm ocean to heat the atmosphere above it, following which moisture-rich air rises and develops into rain clouds. The exact reverse happens in the West Pacific (closer to India).

Double usual chance

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues to indicate there is an increased risk of an El Niño occurring this year, at least double the usual chance.

On Wednesday, a moderately strong rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse was over the West Pacific (to India’s disadvantage).

If the MJO pulse maintains its strength, it would likely weaken the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific. This, in turn, would result in further warming of the equatorial Pacific, clearing the way for El Niño. 

Western disturbance 

Back home, a cyclonic circulation sprung up over Central Pakistan on Wednesday morning even as an active parent western disturbance extended a watch from the Iran neighbourhood.

Both the systems are expected to move into North-West India one after the other over the next three-four days.

They will draw moisture big time from the Arabian Sea, open up troughs that reach the South of the country, and trigger heavy rain, thunderstorms, lightning, high winds, and hail across many parts.