Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised upwards India’s cotton output at 311.18 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the year 2022-23. Revision in the crop numbers came after the trade body convened a meeting of the cotton stakeholders from across the country to arrive at an ‘accurate cotton crop estimate’. The meeting was held in Mumbai on July 10.

In its May estimate, CAI had projected cotton output at 298.65 lakh bales, lowest since 2008-09 (290 lakh bales.). This was contradictory to the Central Government’s projection of 343.47 lakh bales and the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC)‘s estimate of 337.24 lakh bales for 2022-23.

The crop estimate for the year 2021-22 has been revised to 299.16 lakh bales.

“The meeting discussed the State-wise pressing data provided by each state association and other input by stakeholders,” a CAI statement said.

The meeting was attended by 55 members including CAI crop committee members, who stated that total arrivals for 2022-23 stood at 281.98 lakh bales including 171.73 lakh bales in the Central zone, 65.12 lakh bales in South zone and 38.95 lakh bales in the North zone.

Total cotton availability for the year is estimated at 315.98 lakh bales including 10 lakh bales of imports till June 30, 2023 besides the 24 lakh bales of opening stock. Total cotton consumption is estimated at 238 lakh bales, 13.50 lakh bales of exports till June 30, 2023.

Global outlook

Meanwhile, US Agriculture agency, Foreign Agriculture Service under US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated higher cotton production by “more than 1.7 million bales this month to 118 million as larger crops in Brazil, India, and Australia more than offset slightly lower production in Argentina.”

On the global trade outlook, it forecast to be “down slightly to 43.5 million bales, but over 6.0 million higher compared with the previous year. Higher exportable supplies in Brazil more than offset lower US, Australia, and India shipments.

Global ending stocks are up more than 1.7 million bales to 94.5 million — the highest expected level in four years and mostly owed to lower consumption. The US season-average farm price for 2023/24 is forecast down 1 cent to 76 cents, the FAS note said.

India’s benchmark cotton Guj 29mm variety was quoted at ₹55,600 per candy (each of 356 kg processed cotton).