Indian agriculture could come under further pressure with the world likely to witness record-high temperatures that will be above the 1991-2020 reference period until 2028, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). “The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900,” said the WMO in its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2024-2028. 

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there is an 80 per cent chance that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. There is a 47 per cent chance that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.

Impact on India

“It is likely (86% chance) that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2023). The chance of the five-year mean for 2024-2028 being higher than the last five years (2019-2023) is also likely (90 per cent),” it cautioned.

Since 2020, the world has gone through three years of La Nina, which results in heavy rains and floods in Asia, particularly India, besides causing drought in the Americas. From June 2023, it was in the grips of El Nino, which causes drought in Asia, especially India. The weather event resulted in one-fourth of the country suffering from drought. 

Attributed to climate change, these events have resulted in India going through unseasonal rains and heatwaves that have affected the production of foodgrains, pulses and oilseeds. 

WMO’s current prediction means the Indian government will have to look at not only facing climate change but also preparing growers to make suitable changes in their farming methods, said an expert. 

‘El Nino has peaked’

Stating the 2023-24 El Niño has peaked and is likely to transition towards a La Niña during 2024, the update said Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March), relative to the average of the 1991-2020 period, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the warming in global mean temperature.

The 2023-24 El Niño has peaked and is likely to transition towards a La Niña during 2024. Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March), relative to the average of the 1991-2020 period, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the warming in global mean temperature.

The WMO referred to the problems India faced in the update. “Over 2019-2023, apart from the eastern tropical Pacific and parts of Canada, Australia and India, the anomalies were mainly positive across the globe,” it said. The so-called ‘warming hole’ in the subpolar North Atlantic was no longer evident. Warm anomalies were greatest at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, especially the Arctic, and generally larger over land than ocean. This period had La Niña conditions for three consecutive years.

UN Chief’s message

In his message, United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, said, “For the past year, every turn of the calendar has turned up the heat. Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening. We’re shattering global temperature records and reaping the whirlwind. It’s climate crunch time. Now is the time to mobilise, act and deliver.”

Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus Climate Change Centre — a European Union-funded organisation — said, “We are living in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented skill in monitoring the climate and this can help inform our actions. ...if we manage to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere soon, we might be able to return to these “cold” temperatures by the end of the century.”