North-West India received the first in the series of potentially weather-altering incoming western disturbances moving in across Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan on Friday after it locked into position across a longitude linking Anantnag in South-West Jammu and Kashmir and Sriganganagar in North Rajasthan, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. 

Along with an inbound successor disturbance that is several times more endowed in terms of intensity and impact, it would help lift a prolonged spell of chill over the hills and plains of North-West and East India in phases. The successor disturbance was located over East Iran on Friday on its eastward-bound track. 

Rain, snow for hills and plains

The first disturbance will bring light to moderate to scattered rainfall or snowfall over Jammu, Kashmir,-Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Friday. Isolated light rainfall is likely over North Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi.  On the other hand, the ‘active’ successor ‘may affect the hills for almost a week from Friday night to Thursday and the plains from Monday to Wednesday.

It will trigger light to moderate to isolated to scattered rain over the hills from Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for three days until Sunday. Its intensity and distribution may increase from Monday to being scattered to widespread rain or snow rainfall until Thursday next with heavy rain/snow from Monday to Wednesday.  

Dense fog shifts to East India

Isolated hailstorm also is likely over the hills of North-West India on Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate to isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, North Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh from Monday to Thursday and over Delhi until Wednesday, right on the eve of the Republic Day parade in the national capital.

The dense fog threat currently has shifted away to East India and looms large over isolated pockets of Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura on Friday and Saturday. Prevailing cold air will cause moisture left behind by a previous disturbance to condense and settle as fog over the region. This region is bracing to receive fresh western disturbances moving in from North-West India. Meanwhile, a third western disturbance may move in from across the international border before January is out.

Rain for South Peninsula

An extended outlook for three days from Wednesday next to Friday reveals the active western disturbance will continue to dump fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rain/snow over the hills and isolated to scattered light to moderate rain over the plains. The IMD also hinted at rain for the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from a buzz building over the Bay of Bengal. 

This will come about as the intense disturbance ventures to send out a ‘limb’ to the South and incites the Bay into activity. A passing weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave will lend its support to the interaction, resulting in rain or thundershowers for the South Peninsula including South and interior Tamil Nadu, adjoining Kerala and Karnataka. late next week. 

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction is of the view the wet spell over the South Peninsula may continue into early February. The ‘limb’ packing weather will run North from here to parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and West Madhya Pradesh before spreading out over East India. These areas may also receive rain or thundershowers during this phase.