A monsoon depression is calling the shots from over Kutch in Gujarat, on what should usually be the the last day of the South-West monsoon, thus underlining its expansive run this year and spill-over into early October.

India Met Department (IMD) had earlier said that this monsoon would make for the most delayed season since 1960, from when the archive of monsoon withdrawal dates have been maintained.

Central India-bound

The IMD has located the depression to be about 40 km East-North-East of Kandla (Gujarat) on Monday morning. It could continue to move, as a depression, in that direction towards Madhya Pradesh until Tuesday.

Onward track suggests that the system may weaken a round, but may head further into Central and East India, as a low-pressure area drenching the already saturated soil under its footprint.

This is a rare track to follow for an Arabian Sea system during this time of the year but it sits in well with a largely benign monsoon that has also been at its whimsical best at times.

The IMD has warned that light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places over Gujarat with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls (20 cm) for Monday.

Similar conditions would prevail over the eastern parts of the state and adjoining South-East Rajasthan on October 1, the time when monsoon normally enters the final leg of its withdrawal process.

This year, however, the monsoon has not shown any signs of withdrawal even after a delay of a month. The IMD expects the withdrawal process to begin in the second week of October.

More rains seen

The intensity of the ongoing rainfall is likely to reduce over Gujarat and Rajasthan from Tuesday. But the rains will increase over West Madhya Pradesh, due to the incoming depression.

Light to moderate rainfall has been forecast at most places over West Madhya Pradesh from Tuesday with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls on Wednesday.

Strong winds, associated to depression, with speeds reaching up to 40 km/hr and gusting to 50 km/hr may prevail over North Gujarat and adjoining South Rajasthan until tomorrow evening.

Squally weather may prevail over the Gujarat Coast and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea until Monday evening. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the North-East Arabian Sea and along and off Gujarat coast.

Meanwhile to the East, Bihar has experienced widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls triggered by a cyclonic circulation during past three consecutive days.

The intensity and distribution of rainfall here may reduce from Monday even as the causative cyclonic circulation persisted from overnight on South-East Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood.

East likely target

Also alive and kicking is the trough extending from Punjab to South Assam across Haryana, South-West Uttar Pradesh, the cyclonic circulation over South-East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and hills of Bengal.

It receives incoming moisture from the seas and trigger heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls on Monday over the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and heavy to very heavy over East Rajasthan.

Heavy rainfall is also forecast over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, West Madhya Pradesh, plains of Bengal, the North-Eastern States, and Kerala.

Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning are forecast to roll out at isolated places over Jharkhand, West Madhya Pradesh and the northern parts of Madhya Maharashtra during this period.

An extended forecast from October 5 to 7 said fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over parts of East and adjoining North-East India as well as South Peninsular India.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall may occur over the rest of the country except over some parts of West India and islands where isolated rainfall is likely.

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