Break-monsoon conditions seem to have settled over large parts of the country, bringing to bear a lean phase, and reducing the rain surplus to two per cent over the weekend. The deficit over East and North-East India persists, while Rayalaseema broke fresh into the category and Kerala added to its own shortfall.
There is no major relief for parts of North-West India, Central India, West and South India for the next week, with only the East and North-East having prospects of receiving any meaningful rain. This sits well with the identified pattern of a break-monsoon phase when, along with this region, only parts of the East Coast (especially Tamil Nadu) can expect moderate to heavy rain.
Bihar is worst-hit
Bihar (-43 per cent) carries the worst deficit, followed by Kerala (-39 per cent); Jharkhand (-37 per cent); the plains of West Bengal (-32 per cent); East Uttar Pradesh (-28 per cent); Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-27 per cent); and Lakshadweep (-22 per cent). The monsoon trough has already shifted to the North of its normal position, signifying the ‘break’ phase.
Proximity to the trough will benefit East and North-East India in the form of expected rain for the next few days. The IMD has forecast moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy falls over West Bengal and Sikkim on Tuesday and over Bihar and Jharkhand for two more days until Wednesday. Isolated very heavy rain is likely over Bihar on Tuesday.
Rain for hills of North-West
Elsewhere in the region, moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Tuesday and Wednesday, and isolated heavy rain for the subsequent three days.
North-West India, too, stands to make some gains as a western disturbance chugs in from across the border. Moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is likely along the foothills over Uttarakhand until Thursday, and over Uttar Pradesh, until Wednesday. Isolated very heavy rain is likely over East Uttar Pradesh until Wednesday, and over Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday.