Only six out of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country have a rain deficit on Thursday morning, and all five are situated in the East and North-East region where the monsoon is currently on an overdrive under the influence of a rare deep depression. The system has weakened into a depression on Thursday morning, but will continue to pour it down over this rain-deficient region.

Depression on merry run 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the depression moved in from Jharkhand and adjoining North Chhattisgarh to entirely over North Chhattisgarh about 40 km North-North-West of Ambikapur (Chhattisgarh) and 190 km East-South-Wast of Sidhi (East Madhya Pradesh) where it has remained stationary. The rain deficit amounts to -36 per cent over Jharkhand; -45 per cent over neighbouring Bihar; -33 per cent over East Uttar Pradesh; and -29 per cent over the plains of West Bengal. 

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Elsewhere, the deficit amounted to -32 per cent over Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura. The other subdivision away from this region featuring a deficit is Kerala, with -37 per cent. While the East and North-East regions (as well as parts of the North-West) can look forward to a productive run of the monsoon for next week or so, Kerala may have to wait a little longer for deliverance. 

Kerala’s wait to last longer

This wait may last until the third week of August, as per global models. On Thursday, the IMD said the depression over North Chhattisgarh may move towards North-East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South-West Uttar Pradesh where it may weaken a round. But a remnant low-pressure area may activated over Head Bay to bring a fresh round of showers over East and North-East India

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Rain for Madhya Pradesh

The depression may bring light to moderate rain at most places over East Madhya Pradesh on Friday with heavy to very heavy rain at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rain. Heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places on Saturday. Heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh on Friday. 

As for rain-deficient East Uttar Pradesh, isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely for three days from Friday. Numerical IMD models hint that the Head Bay of Bengal and adjoining parts of East and North-East India may continue to witness rain activity at least for over the next 9-10 days, spurred on by the remnant low-pressure area.