A fresh rain spell from an easterly wave is likely to commence over South Peninsular India from Tuesday (November 14) even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the prevailing strong easterly/north-easterly winds from Bay of Bengal will continue to trigger light to moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rain over parts of Lakshadweep, Kerala and Mahe as well as Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Friday and Saturday. 

Isolated to scattered rainfall over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam and Karnataka until Saturday. The low-pressure area over East-Central Arabian Sea that oversaw the prevailing rain activity over the South Peninsula has weakened but the IMD is pointing to fresh activity over the Bay of Bengal next. 

Relief from toxic air

Over North-West India, an active western disturbance as a trough currently crossing in has induced the formation of a cyclonic circulation over Central Pakistan. This has ensured moisture feeding from the Arabian Sea towards North-West India. Resultant light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/snowfall for the hills and isolated to scattered rain over Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan on Friday has been a welcome relief to the high winter-time pollution levels. Isolated heavy rain/snow was forecast over Jammu-Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh the same day.

Meanwhile, a low-pressure area may pop up over the South-East and adjoining South-West Bay (some distance way to the East of Sri Lanka and South-East Tamil Nadu) around Wednesday (November 15). This may fire up the North-East monsoon initially, but its track remains suspect since early model predictions signals seem to guide it away from the Tamil Nadu coast towards the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast. This might take away the accompanying rains along, at the expense of the South Peninsula.  

Kerala, only major beneficiary 

So far during the North-East monsoon, Kerala has been the major beneficiary after the drubbing it received during the preceding South-West monsoon (June-September). In contrast, Tamil Nadu has been in the red until recently but has returned to the ‘green zone’ (normal) within the prescribed +20 per cent to -20 per cent above long-period average rainfall threshold. Cumulative rain received from October 1 until November 10 is at -13 per cent for Tamil Nadu but -47 per cent for Puducherry. 

For Kerala, it is at a much healthier +19 per cent and Lakshadweep, -8 per cent. But the state of Karnataka is reeling at a deficit of -32 per cent while Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are worse off at -74 per cent and -86 per cent respectively. Overall, the heavier rain over the southern parts of Tamil Nadu appears to have saved the blushes for the state as a whole. 

Trend in Met subdivisions

Rain records for embedded meteorological subdivisions have a nuanced take, though not entirely different from those of the states. While Kerala and Mahe stays at +19 per cent and Lakshadweep at -8 per cent, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry together are at -14 per cent; South Interior Karnataka at -18 per cent; and Coastal Karnataka at -6 per cent. The outliers with significant deficits from poor or scanty rain so far during October and November are North Interior Karnataka (-69 per cent); Rayalaseema (-72 per cent) and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam (-75 per cent); and Telangana (-86 per cent). 

An extended outlook from the IMD said that overall, rainfall activity during the week November 16 to 22 is likely to be above normal over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Easterly waves will continue to trigger scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is over the larger South Peninsula during many days of the week. But no rain or below normal rain is likely for the rest of the country after active western disturbances take a break over North-West India. 

Related Topics
comment COMMENT NOW