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The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had estimated a higher global production of oilseeds during the current marketing year to August, but a cause for concern could be the projection of 10.5 per cent drop in sunflower seed in view of the Ukraine War.
The USDA has forecast the global production at 645.61 million tonnes (mt) against 604.61 mt in 2021-22. It has also forecast the global production of vegetable oils at 218.91 mt for 2022-23 against 211.14 mt in 2021-22. The production of soyabean and rapeseed is expected to be up by 9.82 per cent, and 14.84 per cent, respectively.
According to the USDA FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service) report ‘Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade’, the global soyabean seed production is forecast at 390.53 mt for 2022-23 (355.59 mt for 2021-22) and rapeseed at 84.82 mt (73.86 mt).
Sunflower
The global sunflower seed production is likely to be lower at 51.30 mt (57.32 mt). The report said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered a series of major impacts on the global oilseeds market. Prior to the conflict, Ukraine ranked as the top producer of sunflower seed and top exporter of sunflower seed products, representing about half of global trade in 2020-21.
“Though the situation is still ongoing, the close of the marketing year (September 2021 - August 2022) provides an opportunity to assess the impacts of the conflict on sunflower seed trade flows,” it said.
The current year trade forecasts for Ukraine sunflower seed and products reflect lower production expectations as well as the assumption of continued distorted trade patterns and limited crush, it said.
While the sunflower seed production of Ukraine is forecast at 10.10 mt for MY 2022-23 (17.50 mt for 2021-22), Russia’s sunflower seed production is forecast at 17 mt for MY 2022-23 (15.57 mt).
The global production of sunflower oil is forecast at 20.11 mt during 2022-23 against 19.85 mt in 2021-22. Of this, the share of Russia and Turkey in sunflower oil production is estimated to go up to 6.19 mt (5.82 mt) and 1.21 mt (0.92 mt), respectively. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s sunflower oil production is forecast to be at 4.08 mt in 2022-23 against 4.61 mt in 2021-22.
Soyabean
Global soyabean seed production is forecast at 390.53 mt for MY 2022-23 against 355.59 mt for 2021-22, a growth of 9.82 per cent. While the report forecasts an increase in the soyabean production in Brazil to 152 mt (127 mt) and Argentina to 49.5 mt (43.9 mt), it expects the production to be down to 118.26 mt (121.52 mt) in the US.
Global soyabean oil production is estimated at 61.87 mt for 2022-23 against 59.32 mt in 2021-22. The report is estimating a decline in the import of soyabean oil in India to 3.35 mt in 2022-23 (4.10 mt), and an increase in the import by China to 1 mt (0.29 mt) during the period.
Rapeseed
The report estimates the global production of rapeseed at 84.82 mt for 2022-23 against 73.86 mt for 2021-22, an increase of 14.84 per cent. It forecasts the rapeseed production to go up to 19.5 mt for 2022-23 (17.21 mt) in European Union and to 19.5 mt (13.75 mt) in Canada. There is no change in the production estimates in India and it remains at 11 mt.
The global production of rapeseed oil is forecast at 31.73 mt for 2022-23 against 29.07 mt in 2021-22. Of this, the share of India is estimated at 3.80 mt (3.74 mt), and Canada at 4.43 mt (3.57 mt). Rapeseed oil production in European Union is estimated to go up to 9.91 mt in 2022-23 against 9.15 mt in 2021-22.
Palm oil
Global palm oil production is forecast to go up to 78.22 mt for 2022-23 against 75.93 mt in 2021-22, an increase of 3.01 per cent. Of this, the Indonesian palm oil production is estimated to go up to 66.5 mt (45.3 mt), and Malaysian production to 18.8 mt (18.15 mt) during the period.
The report said that despite the downward pressures facing global palm oil trade in 2021-22, Malaysia increased global market share, backfilling weaker Indonesia exports. While exports are forecast up in 2022-23, Malaysia market share is expected to decline on increased competition from Indonesia, it said.
According to the report, India remained the major importer of palm oil at 7.8 mt in 2021-22, and estimated the Indian imports to go up to 8.73 mt in 2022-23.
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