Even as parts of North and Central India tackles severe heat wave conditions with temperatures soaring to 43-45 deg Celsius at many places, a few weather models are forecasting better and tolerable climes going into May.

This comes against the backdrop of individual climate experts suspecting a deadly heat wave might sweep North-West India and adjoining Pakistan more or less along the lines of the one that scorched these regions in 2015.

High April temperatures

Per India Meteorological Department (IMD) update, centres recording highest temperatures of 45 deg Celsius and above on Wednesday are Bikaner (45.2 deg C); Jhansi (45.5 deg C); Rajgarh (45.6 deg C); Wardha (45.0 deg C); and Bharhmapuri (45.1 deg C). A number of other places across North-West India, Central, East and Peninsular India recorded 43 deg Celsius and above.

Meanwhile, the Busan, South-Korea based APEC Climate Centre has persisted with its outlook for heat trending likely lower in May except in the hills of North-West India - Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh – and still lower in Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan and North-East India.

Temperatures may be even lower in East Rajasthan, entire Gujarat and adjoining West Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, it will be cool over much of East India and almost entire Central and Peninsular India except South Kerala and adjoining South Tamil Nadu, as per the Korean agency outlook.

Pre-monsoon showers
Rain outlook for May from APEC Climate Centre

Rain outlook for May from APEC Climate Centre | Photo Credit: (nil)

The turnaround in weather from the scorching March and April is being attributed to the widespread pre-monsoon showers the agency expects the entire country may receive except fringes of Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab during May. The showers will grow heavier towards Central India and adjoining Peninsular India.

The Application Laboratory of the Japenese national forecaster Jamstec said, compared to seasonally averaged rainfall in April–June average, most parts India, Sri Lanka, Indochina, Indonesia and the Philippines, among others, will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. This could bring down temperatures in these regions.

Lower tercile category

Global long-range model probability maps produced by the UK Met Office also has said that probability of above normal temperatures during May-June-July for India falls in the lowest tercile category (0-20). Near-normal temperatures are in the next higher tercile (20-40) while below-normal temperatures are in the highest (60-80).

This is explained by the precipitation probability maps for the country during the period with above-normal precipitation falling in the highest tercile category (60-80), normal precipitation in the second-highest tercile category (20-40) and below-normal precipitation in the third highest and lowest (0-20), per the UK Met Office outlook.

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