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Day temperatures have risen to uncomfortable highs over South India since early this month, especially in Kerala, where a heat wave alert was in place during the first week.
This offered a throwback to 2016 when the southernmost State was served with its first heat wave alert as the monster El Nino episode of 2014-2016 impacted the global weather pattern.
The maximum temperature had shot up to a 29-year-high of 41.8 deg Celsius at Malampuzha in Palakkad district in late April 2016 as the heat wave-struck State watched in horror.
Three years down the line, a heat wave alert has had to be sounded for a couple of districts in the State for two days as early as in the first week of March, even before summer has arrived.
Conditions in the Equatorial Pacific suggest that currently ‘neutral’ conditions are prevailing though sea temperatures may reach an El Nino threshold in February-March-April.
Given this, weathermen surmise that localised weather patterns, rather than those emanating from the far-away Pacific, may have been instrumental in sending up mercury to early highs.
While a stubborn anti-cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal is suppressing formation of clouds, the near absence of westerlies from the Arabian Sea has not helped.
Summer showers
Apart from Kerala, high day temperatures are being reported from North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
An outlook for February-March-April by the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System of the IMD says that some of these regions may progressively see heat wave conditions abate.
The whole of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, most parts of Karnataka and Marathwada may witness thundershowers during this period, capping temperatures.
According to this forecast, summer showers may lash Tamil Nadu first, before progressing to adjoining South Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and parts of Rayalaseema. But for the time being, maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal by 2- to 4 deg Celsius over North Kerala, Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Telangana.
Temperature highs
On Monday, maximum temperatures were appreciably above normal (3.1 degrees Celsius to 5 degrees Celsius at many places over Rayalaseema and a few places over Vidarbha.
They were above normal (1.6 deg Celsius to 3.0 deg Celsius) at most places over East Madhya Pradesh and Interior Karnataka; at many places over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep.
The highest maximum temperature of 40.9 degrees Celsius on Monday was recorded at Gulbarga in North interior Karnataka.
Tamil Nadu, too, has been witnessing high temperatures with Madurai, Karur, Tiruchirappalli, Tiruttani and Vellore breaking the 40.6 deg Celsius-threshold.
An extended weather forecast for the fortnight ending March 21 said that although most parts of India have started warming, maximum temperatures will remain below normal.
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