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India will receive normal, well-distributed rainfall during the current south-west monsoon season, benefitting farmers and the country as a whole, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
The country is expected to receive 101 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 88 centimetres with an error margin of +/- 4 per cent during the four-month period even though the onset is delayed by a couple of days, said IMD Director General (Meteorology) M Mohapatra, while announcing the second stage long range seasonal monsoon forecast here. In fact, IMD bettered its forecast in the second leg to 101 per cent from 98 per cent it had predicted in April this year.
The monsoon onset, anticipated earlier on May 31, will now be on June 3, he said.
He said the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is seen to adversely impact quantum of monsoon rainfall received, is neutral during June, July and August months. Indian Ocean Dipole, another factor that influences Indian monsoon, in all probability would be negative during the entire monsoon season, hinting at a favourable condition for receiving better rains.
Mohapatra also released forecasts for four homogenous regions – Northwest India, Central India, Southern Peninsula, and Northeast India – as well as for monsoon core zone which comprises States in western, central and eastern India, based on multi-model ensemble forecasting system.
Below normal in northeast
While the rainfall over Central India is expected to be 106 per cent of the normal, Northwest and Southern Peninsular region would be 92-108 per cent and 93-107 per cent respectively. On the other hand, the monsoon rainfall over northeast region is expected to be below normal at less than 95 per cent of the normal. Monsoon core zone can also expect above-normal rainfall of over 106 per cent, he said.
Weathermen also released probabilistic forecast for the month of June across the country. Rainfall during June is expected to be between 92 and 108 per cent of the LPA. The model showed above-normal rainfall over most areas of eastern parts of Central India along with the plains of Himalayas and East India, while the probability is high for below-normal rains over many areas of northwest India and southern parts of south peninsula and some areas of northeast India.
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