Agri Business

IMD says cyclone formation likely in the Arabian Sea by Sunday

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on May 11, 2021

The southern parts of Arabian Sea is revving up with high winds and heavy rainfall ahead of formation of a low-pressure area, which is expected to later spin up as a tropical cyclone.   -  The Weather Company

The low-pressure area might intensify into a cyclone by Sunday morning and continue to move North, North-West.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has hinted at the possibility of a cyclone formation in the East-Central Arabian Sea (away from the West Coast of India) in the next five days, even as it has put out a watch for a parent low-pressure area to form over the South-East Arabian Sea in advance on Friday.

The initial track for the system is North-North-West across the South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining the Lakshadweep area at some distance from mainland India before intensifying gradually. The IMD said it might intensify into a cyclone by Sunday morning and continue to move to the North-North-West.

Slightly different track

This track is slightly different from the usual West-North-West that would take a pre-monsoon cyclone towards the Arabian Gulf to Yemen/Oman. The track change could bring the coast of Pakistan into the watch of probable area for landfall and bring rains to the West Coast of India right up to Gujarat.

The IMD has already forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Kerala and Lakshadweep on May 14 and 15 (Friday and Saturday) and over Tamil Nadu and South Karnataka on Saturday.

Warning to fishermen

Fishermen are advised not to venture out to the South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Maldives, Comorin and Lakshadweep area and the Kerala coast from the morning of Thursday; and to East-Central Arabian Sea and along and off the Karnataka-Goa, Maharashtra and Goa coasts from Friday night. Those who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast by tomorrow night (Wednesday).

If any, concurrent western disturbance activity across the Pakistan border and into North-West India needs to be watched closely for clues on the likely area of landfall for the cyclone. Western disturbances have in the past pulled Arabian Sea storms into the East along its path (towards India’s West Coast).

Western disturbance activity

These are early days yet, but on Tuesday, the IMD said that a western disturbance as a trough is located to the South of Pakistan. A cyclonic circulation lies over Central Pakistan and adjoining North-West Rajasthan in India from which a weather-making East-West trough runs right down to Assam. This would facilitate confluence of winds from Arabian Sea and easterly winds North-West India during next 3-4 days.

The IMD has therefore forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorms, lightning, gusty winds and hailstorm over the hills of North-West India and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightening/gusty winds over the plains.

Extension of this trough combined with a North-South trough over North-East India (thanks to the Kal Baishakhi season) will bring scattered to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over the North-Eastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim; and isolated to scattered rain/thundershower over the rest of the East India during the next five days.

Published on May 11, 2021

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