Mercury shoot-up in M.P. pleasantly surprises

A ‘pleasant surprise’ in the weather update for the day until last (Sunday) evening was that the highest maximum temperature recorded over the land had shot up to 44.1 deg Celsius at Umaria in Madhya Pradesh.

This is even as the country awaits the release of the long-range monsoon forecast by India Meteorological Department (IMD) towards this (Monday) evening.

The daytime maxima have been too low for ‘monsoon comfort’ thus far during this year since sustained heating of the northwest region is crucial to set up the keenly watched ‘heat low’ to build. The heat low builds due to sustained heating of northwest India, adjoining Pakistan and the Arabia desert.

It develops fully in May, establishes the southwesterly monsoon wind regime before heavy monsoon rains start over western India. Unlike other low-pressure areas, the ‘heat low’ is topped up by clear, cloud-free skies due to special reasons associated with the geography.

The high maximum temperature of Sunday was recorded amid plunging daytime maxima elsewhere, an IMD update said this morning.

They fell by a massive 4 to 12 deg Celsius over Himachal Pradesh and by 2 to 7 deg Celsius over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana and Rajasthan. They were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand.

But they fell below normal by 3 to 8 deg Celsius over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, by 2 to 6 deg Celsius over parts of Rajasthan and by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab and near normal over rest parts of the country.

Global models are of the view that the maximum heating would be confined to west and northwest India going forward.

This would mean that the traditional ‘open hearths’ to the east in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra would benefit from what looks like a largely event-free peak summer this year, especially of heat-stroke casualties.

Meanwhile, widespread rain or snowfall has been reported from Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh and scattered over Uttarakhand on Sunday.

Fairly widespread rainfall unfolded over Haryana including Chandigarh and Delhi, scattered over Punjab and isolated over Rajasthan, Meghalaya, east Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu and Andaman and Nicobar and Islands.

The weather-making western disturbance has on Monday morning crossed in fully over Jammu and Kashmir. It would affect western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India at least until Wednesday.

Two induced upper air cyclonic circulations formed part of the westerly package, showing its intensity and potential.

While the first one over Punjab persisted overnight on Monday, the other one over east Rajasthan has moved south-southeast to over north Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh.

A trough from this system extends up to south Tamil Nadu across Vidarbha and Andhra Pradesh. A third cyclonic circulation over Bihar too persisted with a trough from this system extending to Nagaland.

Satellite pictures early on Monday morning showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, northwest Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha, Tamil Nadu, southwest Bay of Bengal, south Andaman sea and south Arabian Sea.

Low and medium clouds are seen over the rest parts of the country outside Punjab Haryana and Gangetic West Bengal.

A weather warning said that isolated thunder squalls would occur over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim until tomorrow. A short-term weather outlook said that fairly widespread rain or snowfall would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until tomorrow.

Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Punjab and east Uttar Pradesh and isolated over Haryana, east Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh during this period. Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and isolated over east India until tomorrow and increase thereafter.

Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra until tomorrow. Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Karnataka and Kerala and isolated over rest of peninsular India, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

An extended forecast valid until Saturday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and extreme south peninsular India and scattered over rest of peninsular India.

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