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The monsoon is likely to cover the entire country by July 6, a couple of days earlier than normal, after checking into the last outpost and the north-western-most desert state of Rajasthan yesterday (Thursday). Its northern limit passed through Jaipur and linked it with Deesa, Ratlam, Rohtak, Pathankot and Jammu across Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab.
Fresh spell for North
The ongoing enhanced phase will help the rains cover the entire geography in time, after making good the lag in the onset phase, an extended outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) valid until mid-July indicated. A fresh spell of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with possible isolated heavy falls is forecast over many parts of North-West India, towards the end of the week ending July 6.
An offshore trough extending from the South Gujarat coast to the North Karnataka coast and strong westerly to south-westerly winds along the West Coast will sustain widespread light to moderate rains with thunderstorms and lightning over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala, and scattered to fairly widespread over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra and interior Karnataka during the week.
No low-pressure area
Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorms and lightning is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during most days of the week, the IMD said. This will pan out without major support from the Bay of Bengal in the form of a low-pressure area. It will, instead, draw sustenance from an east-west trough from Punjab to the North-East Bay allowing for a productive interaction of moist winds from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay. An IMD forecast issued on June 23 had indicated the likelihood of the formation of a cyclonic circulation over a low-pressure area over the North-West Bay, off the Odisha coast, but in actuality, the ‘low’ formed to the opposite side over the East-Central and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea on June 27 that became less-marked later. Another cyclonic circulation had formed over coastal Odisha two days later.
Enhanced over Central India
The week July 7-13 will likely see above-normal rainfall over the central parts of the country; below normal over the North-East and adjoining East India and the South Peninsula; and normal to above normal over the rest of the country. An active East-West trough and moist winds from the Bay and the Arabian Sea, are likely to cause fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy falls, over the central parts of the region on most days of the week.
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