An active monsoon over parts of North-West, Central and East India have brought down rainfall deficit for the country as a whole to six per cent on the first day of July even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted normal rainfall (94-106 per cent of the long-period average) for the month, normally the rainiest. The month of June ended up with a deficit of eight per cent.

The IMD said it will issue a forecast for rainfall during the second half of the season (August and September) and for August, towards the end of July. Latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing monsoon-friendly La Niña conditions may continue over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean while a contra-indicative negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may establish during July to September.

Respite for North-East India

As for the expected spatial spread of rains in July, the IMD said normal to above normal rainfall is likely over some parts of North India, Central India and most parts of South Peninsula (except Kerala and Coastal Karnataka). It will be normal to below normal for most parts of East and North-East India (following an above-normal June) and areas adjacent to the East-Central India. The monsoon is expected to move into the remaining parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat during next 2-3 days and thus cover the entire country, three to four days earlier than normal.

Low-pressure area by Monday

A low-pressure area is expected to form around Odisha coast by Monday, likely bringing flooding rain to East-Central India, to begin with. Widespread light to moderate rainfall may continue over many parts of the West coast. It will be scattered to fairly widespread over many parts of Peninsular India, North-West, East, Central and North-East India, hills of West Bengal, Sikkim and the Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; and isolated to scattered over the rest of the country.

Rainfall deficit for Central India as on Friday has moderated to 28 per cent; over South Peninsula to 11 per cent and North-West India to four per cent while East and North-East India saw its surplus fall by one percentage point to +21 per cent after a bulk of the heavy rain migrated to parts of North-West and Central India. Satellite pictures on Friday showed heavy clouds weighing in over Jodhpur, Udaipur, Bhinmal, Dungarpur, Kota, Jhalrapatan, Guna, Indore, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Vadodara, Surat, Palghar, Amravati, Chhindwara and Nagpur across Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

But heavier clouds hung over East India over Ambikapur, Medininagar, Gaya, Patna, Deogarh, Bhagalpur, Malda, Dhanbad, Ranchi, Jamshedpur, Kharagpur, Rourkela, Korba, Balasore, Kamakhayanagar, Bhubaneswar, Jagdalpur, Manuguru and Srikakulam across Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh as the Bay of Bengal kept itself busy conjuring up a cyclonic circulation that would ultimately show up as a low-pressure area, the first of the season, by Monday.