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True to forecasts, a low-pressure area has formed over the Bay of Bengal signalling a revival of the monsoon over Central India, continued wet session over parts of North-West India and the West Coast.
As the monsoon readies to enter the second half, rainfall for the country as a whole during the first two months has been normal though regional deficits exist in all four meteorological regions.
More rain The deficit is most pronounced in East and North-East India (-12 per cent) while the rest three homogenous regions (North-West India, Central India and South Peninsula) are in surplus.
The revival of the monsoon would bring fresh rain for Central India even while sustaining the wet session in parts of North-West India, which have witnessed floods over the past few days.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has maintained its watch for a second ‘low’ into the week, which could bring flooding rain into Central India as well.
According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and south-west Uttar Pradesh could witness moderate to heavy rain right until August 12. During the latter week (August 6 to 12), the heavy rain belt would march back into Delhi, Chandigarh, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir.
Indifferent outlook Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, which have received deficient rainfall thus far during the monsoon, may receive normal rainfall during the first week (July 30 to August 5) but may give in to a dry spell in the next.
As for the South, the rain is expected to be normal for parts of the West Coast, western parts of Maharashtra (Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada) during the two weeks. Heavy rain will continue to lash the northern parts of the West Coast, comprising Konkan and Goa, while it will be scattered to isolated over coastal Karnataka and Kerala. But most of Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala may witness a dry spell while Tamil Nadu will receive normal rain, according to the US agency’s forecast.
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry have been an unexpected gainer with excess rainfall of 35 per cent thus far, while Kerala has had to contend with a deficit (-24 per cent), most of it accumulated after the first week of July.
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