An active phase of the North-Eastmonsoon marked by light to moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and isolated heavy falls over South Peninsula is likely to extend into the week ending November 8, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. Isolated heavy rain is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe until Monday. 

Isolated heavy rain

Isolated heavy rain is expected also over South Interior Karnataka on Sunday and Monday on Sunday and Monday, an earlier outlook by the IMD said. Meanwhile, heavy rain has already walloped isolated places over Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending on Friday. The highest rainfall of 7 cm each was recorded in Kunnathanam (Pathanamthitta district, Kerala) and Mambzhathuraiyaru, Anaikedanku, Kurunthancode, and Bhoothapandy (Kanniyakumari district, Tamil Nadu). 

Above-normal rain

Overall, rainfall is expected to be normal to above-normal over the South Peninsula until November 8, the IMD said. A similar outlook has been posted with respect to North-West India on account of an active western disturbance passing over the region along a usual track from Mediterranean, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan before it enters North-West India. Light to moderate fairly widespread rain/snow likely over the hills and light/moderate isolated to scattered rain over adjoining plains. 

Winds seen strengthening

A short-to-medium range outlook by the IMD attributed the emerging active phase of the monsoon to strengthening of the seasonal easterlies to north-easterlies after the passing of the away-going cyclones Tej and Hamoon. The Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal storms early into the season had spirited away the moisture build, which is now beginning to build back. Strong easterlies may prevail over the Bay bringing in moisture and rain to the South Peninsula at least until November 6, to begin with.

Global model outlook

Global weather models are of the view that most parts of the country may receive normal to above-normal rain during November. The shift in rainfall trend may be established from November 5 with a likely spot of heaviest rain over Telangana and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain is indicated for Costal and North Interior Karnataka, Maharashtra and larger Andhra Pradesh alongside until November 15. But heavy rain trend may lift over the South Peninsula during the last week of the month. 

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