An excessive monsoon North-East India and parts of the East and unexpected heavy showers over Jammu & Kashmir and Rajasthan from a western disturbance have helped wipe out rainfall deficit for the country on Wednesday. The day saw large excess rainfall also over Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

Skewed distribution

The evening out seasonal rainfall is despite the sputtering progress of the monsoon after an early arrival on May 29, private forecater Skymet Weather said. Rainfall quantum logged in at 105.8mm against the normal of 106 mm on Wednesday after the rainfall deficit peaked to 43 per cent between June 1 and 11. On Thursday, however, the prevailing western disturbance forced the monsoon to remain stuck across Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh linking Porbandar, Baroda, Shivpuri, Rewa and Churk for the third day.

The rainfall turnaround materialised from June 15 and has continued till date. The rainfall may have turned normal, but the distribution pattern remains skewed, Skymet said. The excess rain over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya may have done more damage than any good.

Big localised deficits

Parts of east and central India continue to suffer rain deficits. West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha have deficiencies of up to 40 per cent. Maharashtra too has mounting shortfalls with Madhya Maharashtra topping the chart with 61 per cent, while neighbouring Gujarat has totted up more than 50 per cent. In the South, Kerala continues to struggle with a deficit of 58 per cent while in the North-West, Uttar Pradesh has a shortfall of 76 per cent and Uttrakhand 58 per cent, though the monsoon is yet to reach most parts of these two States.

The rainfed areas in Maharashtra and Gujarat currently face parched conditions. This could lead to shift of crop cycle or even change of crop, Skymet said. Going forward, the last week of June and first of July hold better prospects for the regions. A swarm of cyclonic circulations originating over Odisha and moving across Central India promise better quantum and decent distribution of rainfall. These will be instrumental in taking the monsoon further over North India, right up to the last post of Rajasthan, without delay.

Helpful MJO wave to set sail

Meanwhile, global weather models said a rain-boosting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave will transit Africa into the Indian Ocean from the month-end into early July and strengthen further as it readies to enter the Maritime Continent (Indonesia et al). This will likely prompt a northward shift in above-average rainfall over South Asia (including India) and South-East Asia during the period.

The US Climate Prediction Centre sees above-average rainfall for entire Peninsular India and adjoining Central India until July 5. The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe during next five days; along the ghats of Madhya Maharashtra from Friday to Sunday; over North Interior Karnataka on Friday and Saturday; and East Gujarat on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated very heavy rainfall may lash Konkan and Goa during this period.