An incoming cyclonic circulation from West Myanmar that had parked itself over the North-East Bay of Bengal on Saturday morning intensified into a low-pressure area, on the heels of a predecessor that went to become a depression over the North-West Arabian Sea, largely inconsequential for India.
More rain for Central India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put the incoming circulation under watch for intensification as another depression, with its numerical model projections taking it along the same path as the predecessor, towards Central India and ultimately to Gujarat or South Rajasthan. This would set up the region for another spell of heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next few days.
Third ‘low’ likely soon
Numerical model projections also see a third low-pressure area taking root over the Head Bay of Bengal next week (around August 18), with a typical West-North-West track that guides it into the rain-scarce Indo-Gangetic plains (unlike more westerly towards Central India and Gujarat on view so far) across Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and the rest of North-West India. The IMD has not taken an official call on this yet.
Cumulative trend on mend
Rainfall for the country as a whole has recovered to eight per cent on Friday, with the only deficit situation in East and North-East India improving a bit, but far away from the normal still. Regionally, the South Peninsula has consolidated its surplus to 35 per cent, while that over North-West India (just normal) and Central India (17 per cent) has been compromised varyingly. Central India, and to some minor extent North-West India, should make gains from the ensuing two rounds of rainfall though.
Heavy falls forecast
The IMD has forecast isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning over West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha from Sunday to Tuesday; over Chhattisgarh until Monday; East Gujarat on Monday and Tuesday; Saurashtra and Kutch on Tuesday; Konkan and Goa until Monday; and over East Madhya Pradesh and Madhya Maharashtra until Tuesday. Isolated very heavy rain is likely over East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on Sunday; West Madhya Pradesh on Monday and Tuesday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Odisha with extremely heavy falls tomorrow (Sunday). Isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning are likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh Telangana on Sunday.
Extremely heavy rain
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely over East Madhya Pradesh on Monday. Isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning are forecast over Jharkhand, the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, plains of West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Sunday; and over Odisha until Monday. Isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms, lightning are likely over Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Rajasthan on Sunday; over East Rajasthan on Monday and Tuesday; and Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana on Sunday and Monday.