GDP growth rate for FY22 could be in the range of 9.3-9.6 per cent, according to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

“The reason for the upward revision is that India recorded only 11 per cent increase in Covid cases during Q3 2021, second lowest among top 15 most affected countries, and the increase in cases has declined to 2.3 per cent in November ’21 over September ’21. So far, 115.79 crore vaccine doses have been administered, with 81 per cent of the eligible population receiving at least a single dose and 42 per cent of the eligible population both doses. In certain States including Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh, more than 50 per cent of the eligible population has been fully vaccinated,” Ghosh said in a new research report from the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department – SBI Ecowrap.

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India’s projected 8.1 per cent growth rate in Q2 (FY22) is the highest growth across all economies. The average GDP growth of 28 selected economies has decelerated to 4.5 per cent in Q3 (2021) as against 12.1 per cent. Also, at an annual rate of 9.3-9.6 per cent, India’s real GDP growth would now be 1.5-1.7 per cent higher than the pre-pandemic level of FY20.

Growth drivers

“Our business activity index shows activity above pre-Covid level since August ’21, with only a few weeks reading moderately below 100. The indicator declined during the Diwali week, however, it picked up again the next week to 109.1 for the week ended November 15, ’21. The uptick has been majorly due to significant jump in RTO revenue collection, apple mobility and weekly food arrival,” the report said.

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