Left hopes to retain its strongholds in the penultimate phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections on May 7. In the face of a strong anti-incumbency wave in favour of Ms Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, the fifth phase of the Assembly elections taking place on May 7 is crucial for the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Front, as its future may depend on how deep the Opposition has been able to make inroads into the traditional red bastions of Bardhaman, Bankura, Purulia and Pashchim Medinipur districts.

Seats

Apart from the 14 Maoist-affected forest seats in Pashchim Medinipur, Bankura and Purulia, and 13 seats of Bardhaman (where elections took place in the fourth phase on May 3), a total of 38 seats from these four districts will be going to poll. “There has been considerable erosion in our vote bank, particularly in certain parts of South Bengal. But as long as our strongholds  — Bardhaman, Bankura, Purulia and Pashchim Medinipur  — hold out against the Opposition, we can return to power,” a CPI(M) source told Business Line .

Though Bardhaman is one district which by and large appears to have withstood the onslaught of anti-incumbency sentiment, it would be wrong to assume that there have been no dents made in this Red fort. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, though the Left retained all three of its Lok Sabha seats, there was a perceptible reduction in the victory margins and the percentage of votes pulled by the Left. However, it was in the Municipal elections, the following year, that breaches in the bastion became all too evident, with the Left losing in the Memari and Guskora municipalities — where they had not lost in over thirty years.

“It was after the victories in the civic polls that presence of the Opposition started being felt for the first time in Bardhaman. The winds of change have picked up speed here, but it is

not strong enough to completely overthrow the CPI(M) from the region, said Mr Mahadeb Ghosh a resident of Bardhaman. The CPI(M) district secretary of Bardhaman, Mr Amal Haldar, however, is confident that the party has recovered whatever little ground it had lost to the Opposition. “Our complacency may have led to the alienation of a section of the people of the district, but we have worked hard and have won back their confidence,” he told Business Line . It may be worth mentioning that in 1971, when the Left suffered its worst results in the Assembly elections in the State, Bardhaman retained 25 out of the then 26 seats.

Anti-incumbency wave

Bankura, which has also been a traditional Left stronghold, too, seems to have succeeded in keeping the anti-incumbency wave at bay. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, 11 out of the 12 Assembly constituencies gave the Left Front a lead. The only seat where the Left trailed was the Bankura town seat. The candidate for the Bankura town Assembly seat is heavyweight Trinamool leader Mr Kashinath Mishra, under whose leadership, the Opposition is seen to have strengthened its position. “People now want a change, and we expect to win more than 50 per cent of the seats in the district,” he told Business Line .

However, senior CPI(M) Minister from Bankura, Mr Partha De, feels that the Opposition stands little chance in the district. “Our party has an everyday relationship with the people, not just during the time of the elections. They will vote for us, of that we are confident,” he said. In Pashchim Medinipur district, which has seen maximum Maoist activities in the state (out of the 19 seats, seven are Maoist-affected), the Left's chances in retaining its position of power are quite strong. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Left was ahead in 16 out of the 19 Assembly constituencies. In the 2006 Assembly polls, the Left won 18 out the then 21 seats in the district.

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