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The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey has projected annual median GDP growth forecast for the year 2023-24 at 6.3 per cent—with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 6 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively.
The median GDP growth is estimated at 6.1 per cent and 6.7 per cent in the quarters ended September 30 and December 31, the results of the survey showed. After a four-quarter high growth of 7.8 per cent in Q1 2023-24, the subsequent quarters are likely to witness some moderation, said the survey.
On an overall basis, the GDP growth in 2023-24 is expected to moderate from the 7.2 per cent growth clocked in 2022-23. Persisting headwinds on account of geopolitical stress, slowing growth in China, lagged impact of monetary tightening, below normal monsoon pose as downside risks to growth, according to the survey.
While the median growth forecast for agriculture has been put at 2.7 per cent for 2023-24, industry and services sector, on the other hand, are anticipated to grow by 5.6 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the current financial year. Consumption and investment activity have noticed an improvement, and the contact intensive services sectors continue to keep the momentum, it added.
RETAIL INFLATION
CPI-based inflation has a median forecast of 5.5 per cent for 2023-24 with a minimum and maximum range of 5.3 per cent and 5.7 per cent, respectively. This is in line with RBI’s projection — the CPI-based inflation rate was forecasted at 5.4 per cent for 2023-24.
After showing signs of moderation from March 2023 to June 2023, CPI soared to a 15-month high of 7.4 per cent in July 2023. Although the latest data point for August and September reported a softening in retail price level to 6.8 percent and 5 percent respectively— CPI continues to be outside RBI’s comfort zone.
REPO RATE
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain its policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent until the end of the fiscal year 2023-24, the economists who took part in the latest survey said. A cut in repo rate is expected to materialise only by the end of Q1 or Q2 of the next fiscal year 2024-25.
On private investments, the participants to the survey unanimously cited that at present the government has been doing much of the heavy lifting with respect to capex. The government’s thrust on capital expenditure has led to a crowding in of private investments and provided support to growth momentum. However, momentum in private investments has been primarily led by the non-industrial sector. Investments have been concentrated in sectors including road, railways, iron and steel, cement and chemicals.
The participants to the survey opined that a full-fledged momentum in investments will take some more time to build in. It was felt that going forward any further recovery in private investments will be led by a pick in consumption activity —both domestic and external.
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