Notwithstanding the recessionary trend in the global economy, most commodity prices are expected to remain above the pre-Covid level, largely due to renewed demand from China.

Steel prices

According to Crisil Economic Research released on Thursday, Global steel prices increased over 50 per cent in FY’22, driven by surging prices of coking coal , a key raw material.

Flat steel prices are set to remain elevated in FY’24 as well on the back of high input costs, said the report. Domestic prices are expected to rise again amid a new wave of supply disruptions in Australia . Despite consecutive years of fall, steel prices are expected to remain elevated, almost 1.3 times the FY19 prices, it said.

Read also: India isn’t immune to the stagflation that felled its neighbours

Cement

Cement prices increased 4 per cent last fiscal and three per cent in FY’24 due to soaring input especially that of petcoke and coal which increased 150-170 per cent.

Driven by elevated raw material cost prices and stable demand, cement prices are expected to remain range-bound in fiscal FY’24, but almost 1.2 times the pre-pandemic levels, it said.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices increased almost 52 per cent last fiscal following high coal prices and strong demand. In FY24, prices are expected to increase moderately due to healthy demand from power and automobile segments. However, stable supply from China is expected to limit the price hike. Prices should remain almost 20 per cent higher than fiscal 2019 levels.

Healthy downstream demand to support copper price hike in next fiscal despite expected improvement in supply. Continued tightness in copper supply is expected to keep prices at almost 1.56 times the pre-Covid levels.

Energy prices

Crude oil price to correct to $82-87 per barrel on an average in 2023 even as OPEC supply cuts remain a key development to watch.

The Russia-Ukraine region, which accounts for 10 per cent of the total annual crude oil production, pushed energy commodities to decadal highs, with oil breaching $120 per barrel only after 2008.

However, crude prices are expected to correct around 15-17 per cent year-on-year in 2023. A slowdown in major global economies and realignment of global supply chains are expected to weigh down on price, said Crisil Research.

Thermal coal prices surged on the back of gas shortage in the EU for last two years, leading to a price rise of 180 per cent year-on-year. With the improvement in supplies and a less­ harsh winter, prices are expected to decline about 34 per cent in 2023.

Coking coal prices surged last year, due to supply constraints and geopolitical issues between Australia and China.

While resolution to Russia-Ukrainr war is expected to ease prices by 24 per cent this year, the weather disruption in Australia will keep prices 1.6 times the pre-Covid levels, said Crisil Research.

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