The Sensex made a valiant effort to move above the 28,000 mark before slipping to close 11 points lower in the Muhurat session of 2016. If the thought that the Sensex has closed in the red is spooking you, don’t worry.
A look at the data since the turn of this century shows that there aren’t any cues to take away from this session.
What numbers show
If we look at the Muhurat day close and the movement of the Sensex in the next 12 months since 2001, we find that there is no link between the two.
For instance, the Sensex lost 0.3 per cent in the Diwali session of 2012. But the index was up 8 per cent one year later.Similarly, it was up 0.5 per cent in the Muhurat session of 2010, but down 19 per cent in the next 12 months.
2007 was however an exception when the Sensex lost 0.79 per cent in the Muhurat session and went on to close the next 12 months with 47 per cent loss. But it needs to be remembered that Diwali of 2007 capped a roaring bull market that raged from 2003. It had to end with a thump.
On the other hand, we are currently in a sideways moving market, since 2010, so a crash landing is less likely here.
Muhurat trading is just a symbolic beginning to the new Samvat and most investors just put in some token trades in this session. Probably that is the reason most investors anxiously track the Sensex’ close rather than the Nifty’s in this session. The Nifty too lost a marginal 12 points.
Many brokers and traders also like to exit positions taken in the previous year in this session. The sales made on this day are typically such transactions. That’s the reason that volumes are quite tepid. Volume transacted on Sunday was around a 10th of daily traded volumes on the bourses.
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