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IDBI Capital
PVR (Buy)
CMP: ₹1,005.5
Target: ₹1,408
PVR’s Q4FY20 revenue was in-line while EBITDA margin (adjusted for AS-116 impact) was a miss to our forecast. Consolidated revenue of ₹645.1 crore declined by 23 per cent y-o-y. Consolidated EBITDA margin of 6.6 per cent declined by 1260 bps y-o-y versus our forecast of 8.1 per cent.
PVR has added 24 screens in Q4FY20 and 87 screens in FY20 which is the highest ever for the industry. While PVR has not given FY21 screen addition target, it has 20-50 screens in various stages of fit-outs. Further, PVR plans to raise ₹300 crore to strengthen its B/S amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
We factor weak Q2FY21 and trim screen addition/occupancy/ advertisement revenue forecast for FY21/22 and cut EBITDA forecast by 36 per cent/7 per cent. However, we still remain confident of FY22 EBITDA of ₹720 crore surpassing FY20 EBITDA of ₹580 crore.
We maintain ‘buy’ with new target price of ₹1,408 (₹1,536 earlier) based on EV/EBITDA of 12x FY22E.
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