Assembly polls: Which way Karnataka will swing?

Voting for the 224-member Assembly is tomorrow, Wednesday, May 10 and counting is on May 13, Saturday. Here are twelve things which will decide the outcome in the battle for Karnataka.

Karnataka is the Southern beachhead for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which is trying hard to defend its foothold. Congress which has deep organizational roots in the State is attempting a comeback. Regional Janata Dal (Secular) is hoping that it can get the CM’s chair in case of a hung Assembly, as it has twice in the past.

Anti-incumbency

The last time a state government got a renewed mandate was way back in 1985 when the Ramakrishna Hegde led Janata Party was voted back to power. So, the Sstate has a nearly four-decade old track record of throwing out incumbents.

Caste (ing) the vote

More than any other State in South, instead of casting votes, several people vote their caste. It plays a decisive role in Karnataka. Lingayats (17 %), Vokkaligas (13%), Kurubas (11%), Dalits (19 %), OBC’s (16 %), Muslims (14%), Tribals (5%) are the main social groupings.

Lingayats are seen as largely backing the BJP, while a substantial chunk of Vokkaligas have stayed loyal to JDS. Congress has depended on AHINDA coalition, a Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes, and Dalits as its key vote base.

Differing voter behaviour

The Karnataka voter clearly differentiates between a state and national election. For instance, in both the 2014 and 2019 LS polls the BJP polled more votes, than in the State elections held just a year earlier in 2013 and 2018 respectively.  While in 2013, it elected a Congress majority government, it gave BJP, 17 LS seats of the State’s 28.

Even in 2019 LS polls the State elected 26 (25 + 1 BJP backed independent) members of the saffron party, even though BJP had failed to get a simple majority in the assembly polls held just a year earlier.

The State can be broadly divided into Coastal Karnataka, Mumbai Karnataka (bordering Maharashtra), Hyderabad Karnataka (as pre-independence this part was ruled by Nizam administration), Bengaluru, Central Karnataka and Old Mysuru regions. It is mainly in central parts and Old Mysuru regions where it is a three-way contest. Otherwise, it is a direct fight between the two national parties in remaining areas.

BJP tends to get most of its seats from coastal, Mumbai and Hyderabad Karnataka regions. Congress is a more diffused pan-Karnataka party. JDS is in contention only in about 70 seats across Old Mysuru and Central parts of the state.

Inspite of the sobriquet of being the Silicon Alley of India, Bengaluru suffers from nightmarish traffic, poor civic infrastructure, and very expensive housing. Even though Bengaluru has a crore of people living in the city (of the State’s six crore population) and contributes 60 per cent to the State’s GDP, it has only 15 per cent representation in the Assembly, by seats.

Greater Bengaluru has 32 seats in the 224-member Assembly. For most politicians and their parties, Bengaluru is thus a milch cow to serve their vast, rural, voting hinterlands. While ring roads, metro and yet another expansion of Cauvery water supply scheme are being implemented, all of it is seen as too late and too little. However, since the capital city has the jobs and the wealth it sets the narrative, which is why all parties are keen to capture majority seats here.

CM Basavaraj Bommai the anointed successor of BJP Lingayat strongman Yediyurappa oozes zero charisma. While seen as a ‘gentleman politician’ he has neither been able to galvanize the party cadre nor shown grip on the state administration. Both the CM and state BJP chief Nalin Kumar Kateel are seen as ‘yes-men’ of the party high command.

After the 2013 poll debacle where the BJP was reduced to 40 seats from 104 – due to rebellion by Yediyurappa – this time too the party has seen a large number of rebels. Several sitting MLA’s have been dropped and nearly a third of all seats have new faces contesting on the lotus symbol. All of this is likely to impact the party’s performance

Surprisingly the Congress campaign this time in the State has been pro-active, aggressive and not wanting in resources. Strangely it has been BJP which has been more reactive unlike its track record nationally elsewhere. However, there is no love lost between two key contenders for the CM’s chair – Siddaramiah and KPCC President D K Shiva Kumar – if India’s Grand Old Party returns to power.

Even Congress National President Mallikarjuna Kharge, a senior Dalit leader, may be hoping that he might end up as the compromise CM candidate, in case the fight between the main contenders is not resolved.

For the regional Janata Dal Secular, this might be a defining election which will decide whether the party survives or not. Former PM and party patriarch Deve Gowda is 90-years-old and while his son H D Kumaraswamy has been twice CM for short stints, they will be praying for a hung house.

Kumaraswamy or HDK as he is known has tied up with BJP and Congress in the past to become CM. However with BJP mounting an aggressive campaign in its traditional Old Mysuru bastion, its Vokkaliga base is shrinking. The Muslim vote is getting more closer to Congress by the day. Internal family feuds on ticket distribution has not helped their cause.

Performance of JDS may decide the poll outcome. In case it fares very badly, Congress may be the beneficiary. It also might find it tough to survive without power for the next five years, in case either of the national parties get a majority.

While the Modi-Shah-Nadda BJP fights all elections - from municipal to national ones - as if it’s survival depended on it, Karnataka presents the best opportunity for Congress to win against the saffron juggernaut. Unlike several northern States where its organization has atrophied or even become defunct, Congress has a strong presence even at village level in the State.

Which is why during times of trouble for the Gandhis and the Congress party, they have sought electoral refuge in Karnataka. Indira Gandhi chose to contest from Chikmagalur and Sonia Gandhi from Bellary. A Congress win will not only deliver a ‘resource rich’ state but also underscore its position as the main pole against the BJP nationally.

It will also boost the morale of the party ahead of several upcoming State polls in Rajasthan, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh apart from the grand prize of the 2024 national polls.

Unlike say the recent Goa or even Gujarat polls where the Aam Aadmi Party took away a chunk of traditional ‘secular’ Congress votes helping BJP, in Karnataka the broom is nowhere to be seen. While the party has fielded candidates, senior AAP leaders including Arvind Kejriwal or Bhagwant Mann have hardly campaigned.

This may help the Congress as the anti-incumbency votes will not get divided.

Congress has tried to deploy a formula which worked well for it in the recent Himachal polls. From 200 units of free electricity to ₹2000 per month for each woman in BPL families to doles for unemployed, it has made number of promises. JDS also during its ‘Pancharatna’ yatra has also promised freebies, whereas the BJP has been more measured in assurances of doles.

Now it will boil down to whom the voters trust will deliver on their promises.

PM Modi held a record number of rallies and roadshows. Undeniably the PM is personally popular more than his party as evinced by the fact that in national elections, BJP increases its vote share by 5-7 per cent compared to Assembly polls. Can the Modi Magic help BJP to get a majority or at least become the single largest party?

Both national parties exude confidence of getting a majority. On Saturday when the counting of votes take place BJP will be looking to defend and Congress will be hoping to win big even as JDS will be praying for a hung house so that it can decide who rules the State.

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