Prime Minister Narendra Modi has once again proved that he is the most popular mass leader in India as trends and results pouring in for the five assembly elections on Saturday indicated that he has led the ruling BJP to most extraordinary victories in the most populous and politically critical state of Uttar Pradesh and neighbouring Uttarakhand.

Till the last trends came in, the Congress had managed to save some face with the party heading towards a simple majority in Punjab and showing a thin lead over the BJP in Goa and Manipur. Even then, questions are bound to be raised about the leadership and potential of Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi’s whose mid-way change in strategy from going alone to tying up with the Samajwadi Party in UP actually brought down the party’s vote share and seat count.

The Congress was in a tight contest with the BJP in both Goa and Manipur. But even in these smaller states, the BJP was securing a larger vote share even though the Congress seemed to be getting a bigger number of seats. This result would decidedly result in the Opposition space and muscle shrinking in Parliament and the BJP would head towards a majority in the Rajya Sabha in the coming months. Not only that, with the ruling party treating the results as a positive referendum on demonetisation, the Opposition, especially the Congress, would suffer a credibility crisis when it attacks any big policy measure by the PM.

For the debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it was a disheartening verdict, crushing the party’s plans for a national expansion.

It was an astounding affirmation of the PM’s popularity and policy measures, even the much-derided demonetisation as over 3.4 crore voters in UP polled in favour of the BJP taking the party’s vote share to 39.7 per cent. The BJP has won 312 seats in UP, way past the simple majority in the 403-member assembly.

Both the regional players – SP and the BSP – received nearly identical vote shares. BSP got 22 per cent share of votes and 1,92 crore votes while SP got 21.8 per cent share of votes and 1.89 crore votes of the total votes polled. An embittered BSP chief emerged from her defeat to accuse the PM and the BJP president Amit Shah of having “rigged the EVM machines”.

“I am warning the BJP leaders to play by the rules – you have not won fairly. I am warning Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, if you are truly honest, go to the Election Commission and ask them to reconduct the elections with ballot papers,” said an enraged Mayawati who won just 19 seats despite having got 22 per cent of the vote.

The Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance did not seem to have resulted in any mutual benefit with the SP’s vote percentage dropping from 29.13 per cent and 224 seats in 2012 assembly elections to 22 per cent and 47 seats and the Congress’s votes dropping from 11.65 per cent which got them 28 seats in 2012 to 6.3 per cent vote share and seven seats.

The UP trend continued in neighbouring Uttarakhand with the BJP looking set to win 46.5 per cent votes and 57 seats, a simple majority in a House of 70 members. The Congress had secured 33.5 per cent of the vote share but was winning only in 11 seats.

Victory for Congress in Punjab

It was Amarinder Singh, former Chief Minister of Punjab, who saved the day for the Congress by mopping up 38.5 per cent of the vote share and trends showing the party having won 77 seats, a comfortable majority in a House of 117. Aam Aadmi Party, which was hoping to sweep Punjab, had got 23.7 per cent votes and had won 20 seats. The BJP was getting only 5.4 per cent of the vote share and three seats while the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) managed to retain 25.2 per cent of the vote share and won 15 seats.

Addressing newspersons at his residence, the CM-elect Amarinder Singh described the poll outcome as a mandate for “stability and progress as well as good governance”. “Health and education are my priorities and immediate concerns. I am committed to wipe out the drug menace in the state and bring to book every single person found guilty of perpetuating the problem and destroying the lives of tens and thousands of Punjab youth,” said Captain Amarinder Singh.

Hung verdict in Goa, Manipur

In Goa, it was a neck-and-neck battle between the ruling BJP and the Congress till late afternoon. By the evening, Congress gained an edge on seat share, winning 17 seats compared to BJP’s tally of 13. However, BJP has secured a larger vote share of 32.5 per cent as compared to the Congress’s 28.4 per cent.

In Manipur too, the Congress trailed in vote share – 35.1 per cent to the BJP’s 36.2 per cent. Yet, it managed to get more seats. The Congress has won 28 seats in Manipur while the BJP has won 21 seats.

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