Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Tamil Nadu, yet another time, on Monday. He has visited the state well over 50 times as the Prime Minister and, as the elections are approaching, his visits have become more frequent. However, today’s visit is likely to be more significant than the earlier ones, as it is expected that a deal would be struck with the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) for an electoral alliance. 

While the ruling DMK party has crystallized its alliance with its traditional partners—Congress, VCK, the two communist parties and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUM)--the two other formations, led by the AIADMK and the BJP, are yet to sew up partnerships. 

PMK, a party of the vanniyar community, is strong in the northern districts of the state—it has the capacity to make a difference. Both AIADMK and BJP have been wooing PMK and in the last few days, PMK has been swinging like a pendulum between the two larger parties. As things stand now, it looks like PMK will go with BJP, where it is likely to contest in ten (of the 39) constituencies.  

It is understood that the PMK leader, Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, a former Union minister for Health and Family Welfare (in the Vajpayee government), has been informally assured of a position as a central Minister of State with independent charge, if he wins. His father and the founder of PMK, Dr S Ramadoss, is said to be dead against the party hitching up with BJP, feeling that such an alliance would spoil the party’s chances in the state assembly elections of 2026. The son seems to be prevailing now. 

So, where does BJP stand today? 

Modi’s visit to Coimbatore is happening against this backdrop. Clinching a deal with PMK could be announced with pomp and grandeur. BJP has had a few successful deals in recent weeks. Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), led by G K Vasan (son of late G K Moopanar, a Congress strongman who was once briefly considered to be PM candidate), and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Katchi (AMMK), led by TTV Dhinakaran, a former AIADMK leader and a close aide of Jayalalitha’s controversial friend, Sasikala.Also, actor Saratkumar, who belongs to the influential and wealthy Nadaar community, recently merged his All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi with BJP. None of these parties is big (though, AMMK can move the needle a bit among the Mukkulathor communities of the southern districts) but their presence in the BJP bandwagon adds some heft to the national party. 

After the AIADMK broke away from the National Democratic Alliance, BJP was left rather rudderless in Tamil Nadu. BJP’s state chief K Annamalai drew capital crowds everywhere during his ‘en mann, en makkal’ (‘my land, my people’) whirlwind tour of the state, but the question whether it will translate into seats is still moot. 

What is not in doubt, however, is that the BJP is gaining vote share big in the state. For years Tamil Nadu has regarded BJP as a north Indian ‘Hindi’ party and treated it with undisguised contempt. Even as lately as in 2019, there was a raw hatred for Modi. Not so now. A Ashvathaman, State Secretary, BJP, Tamil Nadu, tells businessline that Modi’s image has changed from a ‘villian’ (“which was due to the false propaganda of the Dravidian parties”) to a ‘hero’. 

For years, Dravidian leaders have been taunting BJP that it is a party smaller than NOTA (none of the above), indicating that people would rather go for NOTA than BJP. That is no longer the case—most opinion polls as well as political analysts are sure that BJP’s vote share would be in two-digits this time. 

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