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The India Met Department (IMD) has delayed till Thursday the timeline for genesis of a fresh low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal even as the monsoon continued to set up a punishing spell across Central, West and North-West India on Tuesday.
And more is in store, as a building typhoon (named ‘Podul’) in the North-West Pacific/South China Sea charges in, and sends in a remnant across Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar into the Bay of Bengal.
Pacific storm push
This could grow into a monsoon depression in the Bay and hit the Odisha-Bengal coast in a week’s time (early September, its last full month) and push into East India, Central India and North-West India, targeting Rajasthan.
This could likely be followed sooner than later by a successor system, once again drawing strength from the feverish activity over the North-West Pacific/South China Sea.
The currently strong monsoon conditions are best explained by the forecast for winds speeding up to 55 km/hr over the South-West Arabian Sea off the Somalia coast, the West-Central Arabian Sea and the Odisha coast.
Squally weather is likely to prevail over the East-Central Bay and adjoining North Andaman Sea, the Gulf of Mannar and the adjoining South Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
US agency forecast
Already, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service has suggested that the Indian monsoon system would likely stay in robust health into the second week of September.
On Tuesday, the IMD located the land-based monsoon trough, the atmospheric highway for monsoon winds to blow in from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, along a North-West to South-East axis.
It passed through Jaisalmer, Sawai Madhopur, Panna, Korba, Raurkela and Balasore before dipping into the East-Central Bay of Bengal cutting across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Odisha.
This apart, a ‘shear zone’ of monsoon turbulence lies over Central India across the aforementioned states, further boosting the sentiments for strong monsoon conditions.
Shear zone up
The shear zone lies further high in the atmosphere, and is a platform for monsoon systems (‘lows’ and depressions) to play around in, representing the robust health of the monsoon system as a whole.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls with extremely heavy falls is likely over Gujarat till Wednesday while it would be heavy to very heavy over East Rajasthan, Kerala and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Heavy rainfall has also been forecast for the next three to four days over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Odisha as the monsoon builds to another peak.
A forecast valid for September 1 to 3 spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely over Central, North-West and North-East India as well as along the West Coast.
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