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The country will receive 102 per cent of the rainfall of its long period average (LPA) of 88 cm during the current monsoon season, which commenced on Monday with many parts of Kerala receiving rains.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which announced the second stage monsoon forecast here, said it was upwardly revising the quantum of rainfall expected during the four-month monsoon season to 102 per cent of the LPA from 100 per cent forecast in mid-April. The model has an error of plus or minus 4 per cent. Last year, the country received a rainfall of 110 per cent of LPA with many States experiencing severe floods and heavy rains.
Similarly, the IMD announced rainfall forecasts for four homogeneous regions — Northwest India, Central India, Southern Peninsula and Northeast India. While agriculturally-important Northwest India and Central India will receive 107 per cent and 103 per cent of average rainfall, Southern Peninsula will get 102 per cent. However, the Northeastern region will receive around 96 per cent, said M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. The homogeneous region monsoon forecasts have a model error of 8 per cent, he said.
The spread of the monsoon over the four-month-period is also expected to be good, particularly during July and August, when farmers normally undertake kharif sowing. IMD expects rainfall during July to be 103 per cent of the normal quantum during the month, while that in August would be 97 per cent.
Similarly, a probability distribution model used by IMD has projected that there is 41 per cent chance of rainfall being normal, 25 per cent above normal, 14 per cent excess, 15 per cent below normal and 5 per cent deficient. This actually indicates that the chances of monsoon become deficient are very remote this year, Rajeevan said.
Rajeevan, who along with IMD Director General M Mohapatra, briefed the media, said El Nino Southern Oscillation conditions this year are expected to be favourable for a good monsoon.
Mohapatra said IMD had declared the onset of the monsoon as the rains that Kerala received on Monday met all the conditions including wind pattern, cloud depth and persistent convective clouds. About 70 per cent of the State received rainfall of not less than 2.5 mm.
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