The monsoon-deficit areas of East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Bengal are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated to very heavy falls over the next five days.

Rains materialising at the fag end of the South-West monsoon may not be of much help to the kharif crop or farmers, but may help improve water levels in reservoirs.

Rains in South

These rains would be facilitated by a trough originating from a cyclonic circulation over Interior Karnataka, which itself is driving residual monsoon rains over the South Peninsula.

The trough, which acts as a conduit for monsoon easterlies to blow in from the Bay of Bengal, cuts across Telangana, Chattisgarh and Interior Odisha to reach Jharkhand, the India Met Department said.

As for the South, fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may lash Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka until Wednesday and Konkan and Goa on Thursday.

The detailed forecast outlook for Thursday said that heavy rains are likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

Anti-cyclone in the offing

An extended forecast valid from September 30 to October 2 (Monday to Wednesday) saw fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over parts of Central, East, North-East and South Peninsular India.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall may occur over the rest of the country except over some parts of North-West India and the islands where isolated rainfall is likely.

Forecasts suggest that a rain-suppressing anticyclonic circulation might develop over the Arabian Sea in early October, signalling withdrawal of the monsoon, but not before its tail lashes Gujarat and its neighbourhood with another rain spell.

Meanwhile, the Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre has maintained its forecast for normal to excess rainfall for Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka from October to December this year.

N-E monsoon outlook

This coincides with the North-East monsoon season, or the monsoon in retreat, over these Met subdivisions, which have had a normal-to-excess South-West monsoon already.

The APEC Climate Centre outlook also favours most of Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan with above-normal rainfall during this period.

The South Korean agency has also taken a peek into the winter season (January-March 2020) and predicts above normal rain for Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka as well as Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh.

The rest of the country should witness mostly normal rainfall during this period, after a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole breaks down and the Equatorial Pacific retains an El Nino-like situation.