National weather forecast and temperatures: Thursday, January 30

The western disturbance over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir had not moved on Wednesday even as its offspring cyclonic circulation drifted out ahead from North-East Rajasthan overnight to North Haryana this morning. The combo will continue to influence the regional weather over North-West India and adjoining East India for another day, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

Dense fog, scattered to widespread rain

Scattered to fairly widespread rain/snow may occur over the hills of the region (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) until tomorrow (Friday). Light to moderate isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorms are forecast over the plains along Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, northern parts of Madhya Pradesh and over parts of East India during this period.

The Weather Company agreed with an IMD outlook for a fresh but weak western disturbance affecting the hills of North-West India from tomorrow

Dense fog may descend at isolated places over the plains of both North-West India and North-East India during the next three to four days. Meanwhile, a cold wave will likely tail the western disturbance over West India (Kutch) today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday); and over Haryana, Chandigarh and East Rajasthan on January 30 and 31 (Thursday and Friday).

Cold day conditions (when day temperatures are 16 degrees Celsius or below) are forecast over parts of Uttarakhand and West Rajasthan until tomorrow (Friday). This is a usual pattern in which seasonal cold north-westerly winds fill the space being vacated by a warmer western disturbance.

Lightning, thundershowers for East India

Meanwhile, the western disturbance and its offspring circulation have also thrown down a trough (an elongated area of lower pressure) from the northern parts of Haryana as far to the East and South-East as Bangladesh across South Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and central parts of Gangetic plains of Bengal, potentially bringing these areas under its dispensation (overall warmth, fog, rain lightning and thundershowers).

An outlook for the next five days (valid till February 3) said that night temperatures may fall by 2-4 degrees Celsius over the plains of North India, Central and East India during the next three to four days as the western disturbance leaves and the skies clear up. But ahead of it, shallow to moderate fog is likely in the morning hours over Jharkhand and the plains of Bengal and Sikkim on the first two days (Friday and Saturday).

Detailed forecast for three days

The detailed weather outlook for today (Thursday) and the next two days is as follows:

Today (Thursday): Dense to very dense fog at parts of North Rajasthan; dense fog over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, North Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya and Odisha. Thunderstorms accompanied by hail and lightning over Uttarakhand; and with lightning at isolated places over Uttar Pradesh and Odisha. Cold day conditions over parts of Uttarakhand and isolated places over West Rajasthan. Cold wave conditions over Kutch.

Tomorrow (Friday): Dense to very dense fog over North Rajasthan; dense fog over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya and Odisha. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and hills of Bengal and Sikkim. Cold wave conditions over Kutch, East Rajasthan and Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi.

Saturday: Dense fog over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning at isolated places over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Cold wave conditions over East Rajasthan and Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi.

Outlook from The Weather Company

An outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, said that dry northwesterly winds and moist southwesterly winds would converge over East India to produce thundershowers over Coastal Odisha, the plains of Bengal and adjoining areas today (Thursday). The activity will likely draw to a close by evening, but another round of rainfall will affect Chhattisgarh and the adjoining areas from Saturday morning.

The ongoing isolated rainfall and mountain snow over North-East India will increase in coverage and likely peak today due to moisture left behind by a predecessor western disturbance. The activity will gradually ease Friday onwards, but linger in Arunachal Pradesh until the weekend.

The Weather Company agreed with an IMD outlook for a fresh but weak western disturbance affecting the hills of North-West India from tomorrow. It will at best produce a couple of spells of isolated snow over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until Saturday. Other areas will have dry conditions during this forecast period. Maximum temperatures will dip by 2-8 degrees Celsius over the northern half of the country during the remainder of this week. Clear skies and northwesterly winds will keep night temperatures across the Gangetic plains to the seasonal average or lower into the weekend and into Monday.

Break in western disturbance activity?

An extended IMD outlook from February 3 to 5 hinted at the possibility of isolated rain/thundershowers over the hills of North-West India, East and adjoining Central India. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts hinted at continued western activity into the first week of February. But it may come to a sudden but brief stop from around February 8 when a high-pressure area (anticyclonic circulation) forms over Afghanistan and Pakistan and signals a change in wind direction, allowing a free run of cold, Arctic air into North-West India, bringing down night temperatures and perking up day temperatures (thanks to the clear skies).

Yesterday (Wednesday), Karwar (Coastal Karnataka) recorded the maximum temperature of 37.2 degrees Celsius, while the lowest temperature of 4.1 degrees Celsius was registered at Hissar (Haryana). South India continued to warm up, with many places in Tamil Nadu and a few in Kerala returning maximum temperatures in the mid-thirties and above.