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An incoming active (strong and deep) western disturbance over Afghanistan, en route to North-West India, showed what it is capable of by hurling an offspring circulation ahead over West Rajasthan this (Tuesday) morning. This is a pattern associated with active western disturbances, in which the offspring begins to influence the weather over North-West India, even as the parent waits across the border over Pakistan or Afghanistan.
Rain/snow in hills, thundershowers elsewhere
The north-westerly winds associated with the offspring cyclonic circulation delve deep into the North Arabian Sea and fan in moisture, which is lifted up against the heights of the Himalayas to condense and fall as rain/snow in the hills (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and lightning, thundershowers, wind gusts, rain or even hail and dust storms over the plains of North and North-West India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rain/snow over the hills of North-West India today and tomorrow with the possibility of isolated heavy falls and thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and hail.
Night temperatures may rise
Light to moderate scattered/fairly widespread rain/thunderstorms are forecast over the plains with activity peaking today. Isolated thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and hail are forecast for the plains of North-West India. The eastward movement of the western disturbance and its entourage will likely bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorms over East India today and scattered to fairly widespread tomorrow precipitation.
Dense fog is likely over the plains of North-West India and the northern plains from tomorrow (Wednesday) to Friday. This morning, dense fog was observed over isolated parts of East Uttar Pradesh, reducing visibility to below 25 metres in Bahraich and Gorakhpur and below 200 metres in Sultanpur, Bikaner, Purnea and Kailashahar.
The arrival of an active western disturbance and the warmth brought about by moisture kicked up from the North Arabian Sea will cause night temperatures to rise (due to the clouds) even as day temperatures trend lower. As for yesterday (Monday), the maximum temperature of 36.4 degrees Celsius was recorded at Palakkad (Kerala) while Bahraich (East Uttar Pradesh) recorded the lowest temperature of 4.4 degrees Celsius.
Credits: The Weather Company, an IBM Business
Outlook by The Weather Company
The Weather Company, an IBM Business, said the thunderstorms will spread out from the Punjab plains to the Ganga plains on Wednesday, while weakening. The total rainfall expected to be realised until Wednesday has been put at 5 mm — 4.5 mm across the Punjab plains.
The total snow accumulation will be 20-50 cm over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Up to 75 cm is possible locally in the region. After the western disturbance abates, the remaining moisture will produce dense fog widely over the Punjab plains on Thursday morning.
Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and the adjoining areas will witness isolated rain and thunderstorms from Tuesday afternoon due to wind convergence. The activity will expand eastward while peaking on Wednesday. Rainfall and mountain snow will increase over North-East India on Thursday.
Maximum temperatures in Central India will be 2-8 degrees Celsius lower than normal from Thursday. Minimum temperatures in the Punjab and the Ganga plains will be 2-8 degrees Celsius warmer than normal until mid week with southwesterly winds. Clear skies and northwesterly winds will drag minimum temperatures to average after the western disturbance has passed.
Wettest January since 2005, says Skymet Weather
Domestic private forecaster Skymet Weather said in an analysis that frequent incoming western disturbances in the previous week had resulted in excess snowfall in the Northern Hills. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have seen rainfall and thundershower activity.
January has already recorded double the average quantum of rainfall. The ongoing wet spell over North India from an active western disturbance and the unseasonal weather activity over the East could possibly make this the wettest January since 2005, Skymet Weather said. The western disturbance will cause rain and thundershower activity in the plains of Haryana, Punjab, North Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi NCR. Hailstorm activity, too, is expected at a few places.
Light rain for Mumbai, Pune, Nasik
Scattered rains and thundershowers will break out over Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal for three days from today (Tuesday). The activity will then shift towards the Northeast and cover the entire region on Thursday and Friday. To the West, light rain will extend to parts of South Gujarat today and affect places such as Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, and Vadodara.
Chhattisgarh and Odisha will experience some unseasonal activity today and tomorrow (Tuesday and Wednesday) and this unseasonal weather will manifest itself in Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday (February 1 and 2). Light rains may also be recorded over Mumbai, Pune, and Nasik. The minimum temperature in Mumbai could drop to 15 degrees Celsius.
Peninsular India may not experience any significant weather activity this week, the Skymet Weather outlook said, except for parts of Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, where scattered and light rains are possible today and tomorrow. Temperatures may look up further along the West Coast while Chennai will experience generally dry weather conditions.
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