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India is likely to experience above-normal precipitation during April to June, covering the pre-monsoon season and the run-up to the year 2021 South-West monsoon season, as per a December 2020 outlook, the latest available, from the Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre.
This period would also see 40-50 per cent chances for above-normal temperatures for Gujarat, North Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Normal to below-normal temperatures are forecast for the rest of the country with a wet weather regime likely developing to the East.
In this manner, a narrow corridor along the East Coast and the South-East Peninsula may see above-normal rainfall (up to 40-50 per cent chance) establish during April to June with Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema and most of Tamil Nadu likely benefiting, the APEC Climate Centre said.
South to benefit near-term
In the nearer term, however, the ongoing January to March winter season would mostly witness the above-normal rainfall persist over the South Peninsula (up to 50 per cent chance) across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Lakshadweep as well as the island nation of Sri Lanka to the South.
North India may see above-normal temperatures during the period with up to 40 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall for North Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and North-East India, the South Korean agency that specialises in forecasts for the Asian region, said.
La Nina about to peak out
The prevailing La Nina conditions may peak out during January-February-March, and start losing its intensity during February-March-April with ‘neutral’ (neither La Nina or El Nino) conditions growing to the level of 20-30 per cent, 40 per cent in March-April-May, and 50 per cent during April-May-June.
The South Korean agency agrees with other major international weather models in assessing that the tropical Pacific would be in a ‘neutral’ state in time with the normal time of onset of the 2021 South-West monsoon season in India, lending itself to multiple interpretations via-a-vis its implications for the latter.