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Intense rainfall over East and North-East India as well as parts of North-West India has started to abate with the clouds thinning out over the respective regions on Wednesday.
This is because the rain-driver monsoon trough is shifting back to where it should belong — southwards from the foothills of the Himalayas — though it is not confirmed if it is headed for the Bay of Bengal, its ideal moorings.
Short- to medium-range model guidance does not indicate this possibility; it is suspected that instead of reaching the whole hog, its lashing tail may roll in backwards to form a loop or circulation and get a move to the West or North-West towards Madhya Pradesh and adjoining North-West India, possibly bringing back another spell of rains over these areas.
Rogue trough breaking down
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its outlook said the rainfall intensity and distribution over North-West India (around New Delhi) will reduce significantly from Thursday (with the eastern end of the monsoon trough heading southwards).
Some reduction in rainfall intensity is likely also over North-East India from Friday.
But it has forecast widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls over Central, East and North-East India and Maharashtra during the next three days, with rainfall intensity expected to decrease thereafter. Isolated, extremely heavy falls are forecast over Assam and Meghalaya on Wednesday and Thursday, and over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim.
To the South, the non-seasonal trough that extended from north interior Karnataka to Interior Tamil Nadu across south interior Karnataka has weakened, indicating that the monsoon is likely pulling itself together for the next spell there. Satellite pictures showed widespread clouds over South-West Arabian Sea and over adjoining Lakshadweep, even as a cyclonic circulation hummed in the neighbourhood.
Swells in Arabian Sea
The IMD located the circulation over Comorin and the adjoining Maldives on Wednesday afternoon. The system has already been triggering swell waves across the Kerala coast, with many dwellings along the Covid-19-affected region witnessing massive currents of sea water rushing in and inundating them. The circulation is forecast to hover above the region for the next four days.
Wednesday’s forecast said that strong winds with speeds reaching 50-60 km/hour (almost depression strength) would prevail over South-West and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea.
Squally weather (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hour) was forecast over Lakshadweep adjoining the South-East Arabian Sea along and off the Kerala Coast and over East-Central Arabian Sea and off the Karnataka Coast. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into sea over these areas.
In a similar manner, the forecast for Thursday also said that strong winds (50-60 km/hour) are likely over South-West and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea. Squally weather (40-50 km/hour) is forecast to prevail over the Lakshadweep area and the adjoining South-East Arabian Sea, along and off the Kerala coast and East-Central Arabian Sea, and off the Karnataka-Goa-South Maharashtra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea over these areas.
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