One more exit poll puts NDA in driver’s seat

Just ahead of the elections results, yet another exit poll, this time by NDTV-Hansa Research, predicted a majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha.

The survey, aired by the television network on Wednesday night, gave 279 seats to the NDA, past the halfway mark of 272 in the 543-member Lower House. The survey predicted a rout for the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), giving it just 103 seats. Ominous tidings were forecast for the Congress which, according to the survey, will fall to its worst ever mark of 79 seats. The BJP, on the other hand, was given its best total, with as many as 235 seats.

‘Other parties’, a category that included all regional outfits, were given 161 seats by the NDTV poll. Even more surprising were the vote shares for the two alliances, with the NDA crossing 37.5 per cent and the UPA falling to 22.7 per cent. It was more or less the reverse of what happened in 2009 when the UPA secured 37.22 per cent and NDA got 24.63 per cent.

Earlier predictions The numbers were much in line with the trends earlier predicted by C-Voter, which gave the NDA between 279 and 299 seats; India Today-Cicero, which predicted 261-283 seats for the alliance, and the Times Now-ORG India poll, which gave the NDA 249 seats. The UPA’s numbers ranged between 91 (C-Voter) and 148 (Times Now-ORG India).

Another channel, CNN-IBN, which had projected 270-282 seats for the NDA on May 12 minus the 41 seats in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where votes were cast on the last day of polling, updated its findings on Wednesday. The channel, after accounting for the last 41 seats upped the estimate to 274-286 seats for the NDA and reduced the UPA’s tally to between 92 and 102 seats. For Uttar Pradesh, CNN-IBN showed a marked difference between the BJP’s vote share and the number of seats it was projected to get. The vote share, according to this survey, will go up to a staggering 39 per cent in the State while the number of seats were projected in the 45-53 range.

The NDTV poll predicted a similar vote share for the NDA in UP, that is, 40 per cent, but with more seats. The NDTV survey gives as many as 56 seats to the BJP in UP. The Samajwadi Party (SP), according to the NDTV survey, will garner 23 per cent of the vote share (a negative swing of 6 percentage points) and bag 12 seats. According to the CNN-IBN poll, the SP’s vote share will be 25 per cent; it is expected to get between 13 and 17 seats. For the BSP, the projected seat share according to NDTV survey was eight with 21 per cent votes, a decrease of seven per cent.

The CNN-IBN survey puts this figure for the BSP at 22 per cent in terms of vote share and gave it 10-14 seats. The Congress, which won 21 per cent votes in 2009, was projected by the NDTV survey to get just seven per cent votes with four seats. The CNN-IBN survey said the Congress will get 10 per cent vote share with 3-5 seats in UP.

In Seemandhra, according to the CNN-IBN survey, the vote share for the Congress would come down drastically, to a mere seven per cent, that is, 34 per cent less than what the party got in 2009. The BJP-TDP alliance is likely to bag 43 per cent of votes (11-15 seats), a 6 per cent increase over the 2009 figure, while the YSR Congress Party may get 40 per cent votes (11 to 15 seats).

This was not very different from the NDTV survey, which said the YSR Congress will get 12 seats, and the TDP-BJP alliance 45 per cent (13 seats) of the vote share. The Congress’ (zero seat) vote share will be 3 per cent.

In Maharashtra, CNN-IBN projected 33 to 37 seats for the BJP alliance, and 11-15 seats for the Congress. The Congress may bag 34 per cent of the vote while the BJP may get 44 per cent.

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