'We aren’t prepared yet for mega or creeping disasters waiting to happen'

There are critical patterns and questions emerging from a wide range of disasters that have occurred in the country during the last year (2018).

Not a month has gone by without a disaster, notes the Delhi-based Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS). Only a few really captured the public attention.

SEEDS combined the analysis of data from the government, international disaster database EmDat, media reports and its understanding of disaster situations on the ground to identify four key issues.

These address some of the major patterns emerging in the year gone by but also point to risks for the year ahead. The first major issue converged on ‘too much and too little water’.

There were 14 depressions, four cyclones, devastating floods across half the country, yet deficient monsoons. Eight states have already declared drought between October – December 2018.

Second, changing rainfall patterns. There’s been skewed distribution in rainfall. Periods are shifting, peak days are rising and number of actual wet days have decreased. That’s one reason why we’re seeing floods and droughts in parallel.

Third, growing complexity. This year saw multiple causes of damage in floods (extreme rainfall, landslides and overflowing dams). Irretrievably damaged ecosystems will see long-term losses that far outweigh the damages calculated.

Fourth, the creeping or the unseen ones - the Nagaland floods or cyclone Daye are examples. Others are intensifying under the radar. Groundwater is rapidly depleting.

Heat and air pollution are taking an unseen toll. BusinessLine spoke to Anshu Sharma, Co-Founder, SEEDS, to get a low-down on these issues.

How has the DRR (disaster risk reduction) machinery coped up with the events?

Disaster risk reduction is a far more recent and evolving machinery as compared to response, and conversations started only with the Yokohama strategy in the early nineties. Most legal structures at the state-level came up only in very recent years. State, district and local plans are still being prepared.

In its early years, the DRR approach has paid rich dividends, and lives lost have been reigned in in a number of disasters, and even reduced recently in the case of heat, for example. Cyclone forecasting and evacuations have also improved, reducing life loss in recent years.

Losses, however, are mounting. We still aren’t prepared for mega-disasters like major earthquakes and floods, and for creeping ones like droughts.

Do we have some exceptions, which others can learn from/replicate?

On a large scale, Cyclone Phailin which hit Odisha in October 2013, has been hailed as a positive example. The awareness building, warnings, and largest mass evacuations of over a million people across the state minimised the loss of life.

What are the takeaways for DRR community from the Kerala/Karnataka floods?

While not unique to these floods, the scale and complexity has reiterated key challenges that require more focused attention.

The human dimension on a disaster’s impact came to the fore; particularly issues around the complex management of dams, and construction in low lying or wetland areas.

Secondary disasters: While the headline of this emergency was floods, less visible elements, particularly landslides, were responsible for a large amount of the life and building loss.

Risk understanding: The impact of these floods on each affected area was unique. It showed the need for comprehensive understanding of risks, and hyper-localised plans and allocation of resources to reduce them.

Do you find a pattern in the evolution and timing of disasters in the country?

Three kinds of patterns seem to be evolving across disasters. First the unexpected is becoming the norm, including floods and drought in parallel.

Second, economic loss is rising. Much of this is informal and uninsured that doesn’t get captured or compensated.

The massive floods across India in 2017, for example, were estimated by Munich Re to have cost the country $2.5 billion, yet insured losses were negligible.

Finally, risk is urbanizing. As economic, climate and disaster variables drive migration to the cities, the number of people at risk here is growing.

Haphazard development on land already prone to hazards and lack of access to basic facilities exacerbates vulnerabilities of cities and towns, with urban flooding in particular becoming commonplace.

How should the DM (disaster management) community prepare itself to deal with challenges of the future?

When we look at the outlook for 2019, clear challenges appear. There are impending disasters which seem certain (like floods and drought).

There are also hotpots such as a large scale earthquake that cannot be predicted but whose risk looms large. In the longer term, the challenges are even more expansive.

The impacts of global warming and climate change threaten coastal communities with erosion; and the third pole with receding glaciers.

So first and foremost, we must put concerted attention on looking beyond response. The patterns of the last few years must teach us to expect the unexpected.

What is it we can do differently to help reduce their impact, not just wait to respond once a disaster strikes?

In parallel, there is a need to look at risks and vulnerabilities that aren’t yet technically ‘disasters’. Considering the patterns of the years gone by, there will be impacts that continue to magnify under the radar – access to water and heat stress being two of the most prominent.

In May 2018, taps in Shimla ran dry, triggering not just outrage among local residents, but also a drop in tourism revenues at the start of the peak season.

The complexity of these issues requires a proactive and multi-pronged approach. Disasters cannot be seen in isolation. A single mega-disaster can wipe out hard-won development gains and recurrent small-scale stresses keep vulnerable families in a cycle of poverty.

Climate change impacts are multiplying these vulnerabilities. This interconnectedness is being recognised globally in agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals to which India is a signatory.

Finally, addressing these challenges cannot be done by the DM community alone. It will need everyone’s involvement – from the government and civil society organisations to media and private sector, with local communities at the heart.

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