May survives no-confidence vote, but challenges remain

British Prime Minister Theresa May headed to Brussels on Thursday to attend an EU council meeting after Conservative MPs backed her by a majority of 83 in a secret ballot on Wednesday night. “Hard” Brexiteers triggered a no-confidence vote in her leadership but MPs voted 200 to 117 in favour of the Prime Minister, which will mean she cannot be challenged in another party no-confidence vote for the next year.

May has promised to use the Brussels meeting to garner legal and political assurances to “assuage concerns” of her Parliamentary colleagues. But whether what she gains will be enough to satisfy her critics remains to be seen. European politicians have made plain that no further changes to the legal text are possible, just statements of clarification. These fall short of the demands of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland which wants changes put into the core legal texts.

No clear-cut victory

The no-confidence win was far from a clear-cut victory for the Prime Minister. In a meeting earlier in the evening, in an attempt to persuade more MPs to support her, she told colleagues she would not lead the party into the next general election, meaning the battle to become her successor will be well underway. The large number of MPs who voted against her also provides an indication of the challenge ahead of her, both when it comes to getting her controversial withdrawal deal through the House of Commons and further Brexit legislation beyond that. Her opponents noted after the result that while she had won the majority, if one considered MPs who were not part of the government and simply backbenchers, the majority had voted against her. The party remains highly divided. While Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the right-wing European Research Group, and others urged her to stand down, others within the party vocally criticised them. “After the apocalypse all that will be left will be ants and Tory MPs complaining about Europe and their leader,” tweeted Alistair Burt, a Foreign Office Minister.

While others may have voted with her and visibly support her leadership, the strength of the rebellion against her will also embolden sceptical voices who want her to extract further concessions from Europe. This includes members of her own Cabinet.

She could also face a separate parliamentary motion of no confidence, should the Labour party — the official opposition — choose to trigger it.

The Labour Party renewed its call for a new general election. “After 40 years tearing itself apart over Europe, tonight’s vote shows the Tory Party is finally and irrevocably split in two. It is incapable of agreeing to a Brexit deal and unfit to govern,” said Labour’s deputy leader Tom Watson, following the vote.

Labour’s stance

Labour continues to push for a vote on the withdrawal deal to take place before the end of the Parliamentary session next week. However, for now it is set to take place in January, before a January 21 deadline, which if not met would mean that Parliament would be able to seize more control of the process. However, so far Labour has resisted calls from opposition parties and from some of its own members to call a no confidence vote in Parliament. The party is thought to be waiting till after the withdrawal deal is voted down in Parliament.

Ahead of the vote, Cabinet members such as Home Secretary Sajid Javid, and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt as well as former Prime Minister David Cameron took to Twitter to publicly highlight their support for the Prime Minister, even as members of the right-wing European Research Group of MPs such as Rees-Mogg flaunted their aspirations for a new leader. They believe a leader who would be willing to risk a no-deal Brexit is more likely to extract concessions from the EU leaders.

May is facing criticism from the right and left of her party, who are united in their belief that the terms of the Brexit withdrawal agreement agreed with the EU aren’t in the nation’s best interests. Hard Brexiteers want her to renegotiate the backstop — or insurance — policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland which would (under the current deal) involve Northern Ireland entering the EU customs union with no unilateral exit option for the UK if the backstop kicks in. Others want her to call a second referendum. With opposition parties also uniting in their opposition to the deal, the level of rebellion within the Conservative Party indicates the obstacles May is likely to continue to face.

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