Despite the doubts creeping over the chances of NDA in 2019, especially in the Hindi heartland following the BSP-SP alliance victory in Gorakhpur and Phoolpur in UP and the losses suffered by the NDA at Araria and Jehanabad in Bihar, it would be statistically erroneous to over-interpret the by-poll results.

In Bihar specifically, all that the RJD has done is to retain its seats where the Muslims, who comprise over 41 per cent of Araria’s electorate, and the dominant Yadavs have consistently supported the party. The late Md. Taslimuddin had won Araria Lok Sabha seat in 2014 by a margin of 1,46,000 votes. In fact, the victory margins have collapsed to 60,000 in this by-poll.

There is, at present, simply no credible alternative for the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Centre and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in Bihar. The CM has just proved his administrative acumen by stabilising law and order situation in the face of communal tensions in Bihar. This is in contrast to the turbulence in the neighbouring West Bengal where around a dozen people including the son of a famous Imam in Asansol lost their lives. This underlines the Bihar CM’s effective grasp over the administration.

For those questioning the contribution of the JD(U), it is significant to mention that it has always enhanced the performance of its alliance partners by ensuring vote transfer. In the context of the BJP-JD(U) combine, the JD(U) pulled the BJP up from 37 in 2005 Assembly elections to 55 seats and further to 91 seats in 2010 polls. Nitish Kumar is synonymous with good governance and credited with turning Bihar from a State where lawlessness prevailed to safety returning to the streets.

That Nitish Kumar is an asset is clear from the fact that in the 2014 general elections, the BJP-led NDA had established a lead in 173 Assembly segments but 15 months later it drastically came down to 60 Assembly seats when the Bihar Assembly elections were held. It is clear that Bihar chose Modi as PM but preferred Nitish Kumar as CM.

As far as the fate of the coming general elections is concerned, Bihar is the most comfortable State for NDA to retain and grow. According to the last general election vote break-up, the current JD(U) plus NDA in Bihar is likely to secure 228 Assembly and 38 Parliamentary seats respectively. Despite 13 years of continuous rule there is no anti-incumbency sentiment against the Bihar CM.

Walking out of the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in July last year was a big political decision taken in the interests of the State.

Zero tolerance on corruption and the political and economic policy decisions have resulted in the growth rate of 10.3 per cent in 2016-17 with Bihar topping the national average.

The liquor prohibition in the State has proved to be a boon for the society. The CM’s seven resolves or “saat nishchay” are aimed at providing amenities such as clean drinking water, electricity for all, a toilet in every home, unemployment benefits for youth, better access to higher education and empowering women, and lanes and by-lanes in rural areas.

Those who still believe in the erosion of the mass base of JD(U) in Bihar have clearly forgotten the unblemished and unparalleled track record of Nitish Kumar.

The writer is the national Spokesperson of JD(U)

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