EUROSCOPE. Xenophobia on the rise in Europe

How quickly perceptions of a country and leader can change. It was just in September last year that images of cheering crowds bearing essentials and toys welcoming weary refugees off a train at Munich station made headlines across the world.

The willingness of the German government, and many of its citizens, to take a stance welcoming refugees — in stark contrast to many other nations in Europe — drew admiration from across the world, and imbued many Germans in the country with a sense of pride.

“It’s the first time I’ve felt really proud to be a German in the face of the rest of the world,” a London-based German said recently, pointing out that it was the first time that in the international eye at least Germany was not being associated with its Nazi or Stasi past (or its football or economic prowess).

According to German government estimates, 1.1 million asylum seekers, largely from Syria, entered the country last year alone, as news of Germany’s willingness to take in refugees — and its more progressive policies (such as allowing asylum seekers to work while their applications were still being processed) spread.

While facing criticism from other European leaders, Merkel gained much praise abroad, with Time magazine choosing her as Person of the Year (only the fourth woman to win) for 2015 (dubbing her “Chancellor of the Free World” for her firm and courageous refugee policy).

Of course, through that period there were tensions — attacks on refugee housing had already begun to rise and Merkel faced criticism from across the political spectrum.

However, the situation deteriorated rapidly earlier this year following the notorious attacks on over 1,000 women near Cologne station at the start of the year that triggered protests, and was also seized upon by rightwing groups looking for chances to rip into Merkel’s policy.

Reports of attacks on asylum seeker housing began to mount swiftly across the country, as did verbal attacks on Merkel from across political groups, and significantly from within her own party, the CDU.

However, the clearest sign of the toll that Merkel’s humanitarian stance has taken on German politics came over the weekend, following elections in three key state elections where her party suffered losses in some, and the far right Alternative For Deutschland made massive gains (the anti-immigrant AfD won 15.1 per cent of the vote in the prosperous industrial state of Baden Wuerttemberg, 12.5 per cent in Rhineland-Palatinate, and 24 per cent in the former east German province of Saxony-Anhalt).

The AfD gained seats in all three state legislatures — raising the number of State legislatures it has representation on to 8 out of 16. Aside from the power this accords them (under the German federal system state legislatures have considerable control over policies from schooling, to health, taxation and budget allocation), it has had a major symbolic impact on politics, too.

Germany’s 20th century history has meant the country has largely shunned populist right wing parties, and issues relating to race and immigration have largely remained on the fringes of politics. The “astounding election victory” was a “clear answer to the political complacency of the established parties,” tweeted the AfD’s leader Frauke Petry, following the results.

Observers have cautioned against overestimating the significance of the party’s gains: they didn’t come first in any state, and in Baden Wurttemberg it was the left of centre Greens that won the election, their first outright victory in any German state election.

Still, the scale of support for the party is troubling, particularly for a group that has links to the far right anti Islamic cross European group Pegida, and which was only founded three years ago, initially as a Eurosceptic party, and then more and more on an anti-immigration front.

It is also likely to boost the rise of right wing politics across Europe, already well under way. In Denmark, the rightwing Danish People’s Party became the second largest party following last year’s general election, while in Poland the Law and Justice Party won parliamentary elections last October. In Sweden the far right nationalist Sweden Democrats party has been gaining ground too.

The big question will be where things go from here. Few observers seem to believe that Merkel’s position is under threat: national elections are 18 months away and there are no real challenges from within her party. She has stiffly resisted pressure to change course on refugee policy up until now and that is unlikely to change in the near future.

Pressure on her from the refugee issue is likely to reduce after three countries — Macedonia, Croatia and Slovenia — closed off the so-called Balkan Route to northern Europe, greatly slowing down the pace of entry of refugees into Germany.

Pressure could further be removed following a deal being negotiated between the EU and Turkey under which asylum seekers would be sent to Turkey from Greece, and Syrian refugees sent from Turkey to the EU. (Turkey will also receive aid, a relaxation of visa requirements, and the intensification of talks on potential Turkish EU membership).

However, the bigger problem will be where it leaves Merkel and her position in Europe — while she is no stranger to adopting positions against other European nations — and certainly during the Eurozone crisis over the past few years — her firm stance on accommodating refugees has isolated her from many of the country’s traditional allies (such as France, or Austria or Poland).

Whether this threatens Germany’s ability to remain at the helm of European policy when it comes to issues such as terrorism, economics, regulation or trade (including the continuing discussions on the elusive Free Trade Agreement with India, likely to be discussed at the forthcoming summit in Brussels at the end of March) remains to be seen.

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